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作者：Avdeenko, Alexandra; Kaiser, Maximilian; Kis-Katos, Krisztina; Reher, Leonie
作者单位：The World Bank; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Hamburg; University of Gottingen
摘要：In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, online intermediaries enabled brands to retain a presence in the Russian market as many global companies-presumably or actually-withdrew due to legal and reputational concerns. This paper examines how sales by intermediaries responded to international sanctions. Using novel data on customer transactions of 95 global brands from 1761 web shops, we show that sales to Russia dropped significantly after the invasion, especial...
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作者：Alquist, Ron; Kahn, R. Jay; Stedman, Karlye Dilts
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：We develop a model that shows how foreign reserve management decisions can adversely affect U.S. money market liquidity. Consistent with the March 2020 dash-for-cash, our model suggests that as export-price volatility increases, a foreign central bank that pegs its exchange rate shifts reserves from relatively illiquid Treasuries to the Fed's reverse repo facility. Over the relevant horizon, this precautionary behavior drains liquidity from U.S. money markets and raises repo spreads. These pre...
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作者：Bao, Xiaohua; Blonigen, Bruce A.; Yu, Zhi
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; University of Oregon; University of Oregon
摘要：This paper uses detailed firm-product-country-level export data to examine how an AD action, a very targeted trade policy against a specific product in a specific export destination, affects a multiproduct firm's price and quantity decisions across its other products and export destinations. We find robust evidence for substantial interdependencies across a multiproduct firm's products and markets, including a new phenomenon we call within-firm cross-product trade deflection whereby an AD acti...
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作者：Koomen, Miriam; Wicht, Laurence
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We present new empirical evidence on the role of granularity in the current account (CA), using a unique and comprehensive firm-level dataset for Switzerland. We show that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms account for almost two thirds of the fluctuations in the headline CA and are the primary source of CA volatility. The granular effect is present across goods, services, and income components and persists over both short-and medium-term horizons. In addition to their direct impact, idiosync...
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作者：Ma, Hong; Ning, Jingxin; Xu, Yuan
作者单位：Tsinghua University; University of International Business & Economics; Beijing Normal University
摘要：This paper examines how the US-China trade war reshaped supply chains across the Asia-Pacific region. Using newly constructed product-level input-output linkages from Chinese customs transactions, we trace how US tariffs on downstream Chinese exports propagated across borders and production stages. We document that US tariffs significantly reduced Chinese exports to the US and, through upstream linkages, caused a 6.8% decline in China's imports from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Furthermore,...
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作者：Medina, Pamela; Sotelo, Sebastian; Velasquez-Cabrera, Daniel
作者单位：University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University
摘要：We examine how trade influences female labor supply through reductions in the prices of household appliances that substitute for domestic labor. Using a comprehensive data set from 1981 to 2017, which includes four population censuses, household surveys, and customs records from Peru, we show that labor force participation rose at the same time that appliance import prices fell. We then develop and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model of trade and household production, to quantitativel...
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作者：Wochner, Timo; Hack, Lukas; Potrafke, Niklas
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：What inflation rate should central banks target? Using two global surveys, we provide evidence on inflation preferences among economic experts-the group whose models and judgments inform monetary policy. We document that, although experts' preferred inflation rates are centered on central-bank targets, roughly half of them deviate (symmetrically) from the target. Cross-expert heterogeneity in preferences is driven by (i) beliefs about the costs of disinflation, (ii) normative views on the rela...
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作者：Chen, Fanghao; Xiong, Ruichi; Zhang, Xiaobo
作者单位：Jinan University; Wuhan University; Wuhan University; Peking University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
摘要：This paper shows that diaspora networks played a pivotal role in directing early foreign investment to Chinese locations with weaker institutions and in catalyzing long-run industrial development. Using an administrative dataset of all foreign firms in China, we document that the post-1979 surge in foreign entry was led by diaspora firms whose legal representatives were overseas Chinese; large non-diaspora inflows arrived mainly in the late 1990s. Leveraging the staggered rolling-out of openin...
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作者：Gibson, Erin P.; House, Christopher L.; Proebsting, Christian; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; KU Leuven
摘要：Unemployment rates are substantially higher and more volatile in the euro area relative to the United States. We ask to what extent the lack of cross-country labor mobility can account for unemployment dynamics in Europe. Our analytical model incorporates downward nominal wage rigidity and an endogenous migration decision. Firms are unable to freely adjust wages during economic contractions, generating an asymmetric distribution of unemployment over the business cycle. The model is calibrated ...
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作者：Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：How do U.S. monetary tightening shocks affect emerging market economies, and how does the impact depend on these economies' own macroeconomic vulnerabilities? We examine this question in a model that combines financial frictions with imperfect anchoring of inflation expectations, a key vulnerability in emerging markets. The degree of anchoring is disciplined using evidence that inflation expectations in emerging markets respond significantly to inflation surprises. Imperfect anchoring amplifie...
