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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Davis, J. Scott; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) have persisted since the global financial crisis, reflecting a segmentation between onshore (US) and offshore dollar markets. This segmentation can give rise to dollar shortages in offshore markets during periods of financial stress. We propose a model with limited CIP and UIP arbitrage where the CIP deviation and exchange rate are jointly determined by equilibrium in the swap and spot FX markets. We consider offshore dollar funding shocks, wh...
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作者：Arnarson, Bjorn Thor; David, Asker Nygaard; Javorcik, Beata S.; Munch, Jakob R.
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; University of Oxford; European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Working with business partners in distant countries often requires operating outside standard working hours, potentially harming workers' mental well-being-especially for women balancing professional and family responsibilities. This hypothesis is investigated using matched employer-employee data from Denmark merged with information on workers' use of prescription antidepressants (AD) and firms' import and export transactions. The analysis exploits variation within job spells and controls for ...
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作者：Boer, Lukas; Lee, Jaewoo; Sun, Mingzuo
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics
摘要：What are the key drivers of current account dynamics? We estimate shocks that explain most of the variation in the current account for the US and other G7 economies. Discovering that the dominant shocks contradict the expenditure switching effect at business cycle frequency, we then explore which macroeconomic shocks are behind these empirical dominant drivers of the current account. Rather than traditional aggregate shocks to supply and demand or recently emphasized financial shocks, shocks t...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Kalantzis, Yannick; Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We build a two-country heterogeneous-agent non-Ricardian model featuring asset scarcity and financial frictions in international capital markets. Due to the non-Ricardian nature of our framework, a demand for liquidity emerges and the supply of bonds matters. We show that shocks affecting the supply or demand of assets have very different international spillovers for an economy in a liquidity trap. A decrease in the supply of assets issued abroad leads to an asset shortage domestically. In nor...
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作者：Kim, Daisoon; Lee, Sunhyung
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Montclair State University
摘要：This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in host and competing countries reshapes U.S. multinationals' greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Using firm-destination level data from 2003 to 2021, we show that while host-country EPU deters investment, EPU in competing destinations attracts it through a spillover effect. We document a structural shift around 2015: as global EPU rose unevenly, the spillover effect from competitors became the dominant driver of investment deci...
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作者：Cavalcanti, Tiago; Ogeda, Pedro; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil's labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets. Following higher Brazilian exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tar...
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作者：Allen, Cian; Bems, Rudolfs; Boer, Lukas; Moussa, Racha
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying global dollar cycle. Our results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflec...
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作者：Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro; Zhou, Sili
作者单位：Fudan University; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Chinese portfolio equity outflows grew significantly over time due to capital account liberalization. Using matched stock-fund holding data under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, we identify a nascent financial channel of international transmission of Chinese monetary policy to world stock markets. Event studies around monetary policy announcement days uncover a cross-sectional differential impact: returns on MSCI indexes and U.S. stocks with QDII exposure are more...
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作者：Liu, Qing; Luo, Wenlan; Niu, Jiatong
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Policies aimed at promoting currency internationalization often target frictions in both capital and current account transactions. We study this two-pronged approach using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which an international currency serves as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. Due to the complementarity between different functions of an international currency, a two-pronged approach is more effective than policies with a single focus. We analytically characterize this po...
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作者：Bastos, Paulo; Stapleton, Katherine; Taglioni, Daria; Wei, Hannah Yi
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines how multinational firms and global value chain linkages facilitate the crosscountry diffusion of emerging technologies. Leveraging detailed data on online job postings across 17 countries and multinational firm linkages from 2014 to 2022, we analyze the propagation of jobs related to emerging technologies through firm networks. Our findings reveal that emerging technology jobs are highly concentrated within multinational firms and their supply chains, with nearly one-third ...
