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作者：Doerr, S.; Marin, D.; Suverato, D.; Verdier, T.
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Technical University of Munich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Paris School of Economics; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：This paper introduces an internal capital market into a two-factor model of multi-segment firms. It features empire building by managers and informational frictions within the organization. The headquarters knows less about a segment's true cost than its divisional managers do, so managers can over-report their costs and receive more capital than optimal. Our novel theory, which enables us to endogenize the cost structure of multi-segment firms, shows that international trade imposes disciplin...
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作者：Conley, Timothy G.; Kelly, Morgan
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); University College Dublin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced...
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作者：Avdjiev, Stefan; Serena, Jose Maria
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Banco de Espana
摘要：We demonstrate that banks' market capital is a key determinant of the strength of the international risk-taking channel of US monetary policy. The impact of US monetary policy on international risk-taking is greater for banks with low market capital. The effect of market capital exists in addition to the previously documented effect of regulatory capital, which works in the opposite direction. As a result, the international risk-taking channel of monetary policy is most powerful for banks that...
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作者：Koenig, Pamina; Krautheim, Sebastian; Lohnert, Claudius; Verdier, Thierry
作者单位：Universite de Rouen Normandie; Paris School of Economics; University of Passau; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets' economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns ar...
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作者：Yuan, Weidi; Ouyang, Difei
作者单位：Nanjing University; University of International Business & Economics
摘要：This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China's manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China's comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry exp...
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作者：Baldwin, Richard; Haaland, Jan I.; Venables, Anthony J.
作者单位：International Institute for Management Development (IMD); Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Oxford; Monash University
摘要：This paper presents a compact and intuitive framework that consolidates, simplifies, and extends results on the links between technology, trade, and labour market outcomes. It makes three main contributions. First, it presents closed-form solutions for the impacts of different types of technical change (TC) on jobs (the sectoral allocation of employment) as well as on wages, prices and output. Second, it shows that wage and employment effects are positively correlated only for certain types of...
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作者：Gao, Han; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Sydney; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We review the relationship between inflation, nominal interest rates, and rates of money growth for a group of OECD countries. Once regime changes are isolated in the data, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to frictions that can deliver different short-run dynamics. The trend component obtained from statistical filters does reasonably well in...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Harvard University
摘要：Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (junk) bonds to highyield emerging market sovereign bonds, 2002-2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligne...
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作者：Draeger, Lena; Gruendler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
作者单位：Leibniz University Hannover; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universitat Kassel; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows ...
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作者：Guler, Bulent; Onder, Yasin Kursat; Taskin, Temel
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Ghent University; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilutio...
