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作者：Jones, Callum; Rabanal, Pau
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. We estimate the model using data for the U.S. and a rest-of-the-world aggregate. We find that about 32 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 21 percent. Simple macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions and counte...
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作者：Poilly, Celine; Tripier, Fabien
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa
摘要：Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two...
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作者：Choi, Jaerim; Hyun, Jay; Kim, Gueyon; Park, Ziho
作者单位：Yonsei University; University of Alberta; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Taiwan University
摘要：We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehen...
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作者：Chen, Sihao
作者单位：Hong Kong Baptist University
摘要：This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector small open economy model, I show analytically that a financial shock to an external production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting t...
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作者：Qiu, Shumin; Steinwender, Claudia; Azoulay, Pierre
作者单位：East China University of Science & Technology; University of Munich; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China's trade in goods and servic...
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作者：Acosta-Henao, Miguel; Alfaro, Laura; Fernandez, Andres
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：With a new quarterly dataset on the intensive margin of priced-based capital controls, complemented with extensive measures (restrictions, prohibitions, and authorizations) constructed using text analysis, we document that capital controls are sticky. Changes to price-based controls do not occur frequently; and when they do, they display high autocorrelation. Extensive measures also show considerable persistence. We then augment a model of capital controls relying on pecuniary externalities wi...
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作者：Miotto, Martina; Pascali, Luigi
作者单位：University of Padua; Luiss Guido Carli University; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending on the prevailing local weather conditions. Utilizing high-resolution data on climate, ship routes, and urbanization, we argue that t...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Topalova, Petia
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, we provide new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines and compare it to the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade, FDI, and portfolio flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in...
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作者：Basco, Sergi; Liegey, Maxime; Mestieri, Marti; Smagghue, Gabriel
作者单位：University of Barcelona; Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：We empirically examine the effect of import competition on worker earnings across occupations. To guide our analysis, we develop a stylized model that emphasizes industries using occupations in different intensities. We show that an occupational exposure index summarizes the overall exposure of an occupation to industry-level trade shocks. Proxying these industry-level trade shocks with rising Chinese competition and using nationally representative matched employer- employee French panel data ...
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作者：Bai, Yan; Jin, Keyu; Lu, Dan; Wang, Hanxi
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We study optimal dynamic trade policies in an Eaton-Kortum model with technology diffusion through trade. Trade affects technology by determining the distribution from which potential producers draw their insights. Our theory shows that optimal policies capture dynamic motives for a country to alter global technology. These policies take into account selection effects and country endowments that affect the degree and quality of diffusion. We provide explicit formulas showing that a country sho...
