Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Draeger, Lena; Gruendler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
• 署名单位: Leibniz University Hannover; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universitat Kassel; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Inflation expectations; Supply-side shock; Belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; Survey; Economic experts

摘要

How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts' expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts' formation of expectations.