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作者：Brugues, Felipe; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Mei, Yuan; Robles, Pablo
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Singapore Management University; The Brattle Group
摘要：This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants' output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a de...
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作者：Patel, Nikhil; Peralta-Alva, Adrian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that sh...
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作者：Herrerno, Juan; Rondon-Moreno, Carlos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We study the interaction between imperfect information and financial frictions and their role in financial crises in small open economies. We use a model where households observe income growth but cannot distinguish whether the underlying income shocks are permanent or transitory, and borrowing is subject to a collateral constraint. We show that the combination of imperfect information and a borrowing constraint is a significant source of economic instability. Optimal macroprudential policy he...
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作者：Rees, Daniel M.
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States' shift from being a net oil...
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作者：Bellifemine, Marco; Couturier, Adrien; Jamilov, Rustam
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper develops a multi-country Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model of a monetary union with ex-ante heterogeneity in legacy public debt across member states. We calibrate the model to the euro area and show that, following symmetric aggregate shocks, the systematic monetary policy reaction induces heterogeneous national outcomes, driven by differences in fiscal space. This generates a trade-off between union-wide macroeconomic stabilization and cross-country synchronization of ...
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作者：Bush, Georgia; Canon, Carlos
作者单位：Bank of Mexico; University of London; King's College London; Bank of England
摘要：This paper analyzes drivers of capital flows channeled by open-ended mutual funds, disentangling flows resulting from investor behavior and those resulting from fund manager reallocation. Using security-level data from Morningstar, we construct a novel dataset of global bond funds for the period 2011 to 2017, whose holdings include securities from 18 emerging market economies. By disaggregating flows and leveraging country-fund variation, we are able to identify differentiated effects of push ...
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作者：Mateos-Planas, Xavier; McCrary, Sean; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Wicht, Adrien
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Pennsylvania; University of London; University College London; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Basel
摘要：We study the role of lack of commitment in the canonical incomplete-markets sovereign default model of Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show the very different set of functional equations that appear under commitment relative to the standard ones. We document how in the standard yearly specification of Arellano (2008) with short-term debt there is no default if there is commitment to the circumstances of when to default. A bad enough disaster makes default under commitment appear. In contrast, w...
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作者：Baumgartner, Martin; Zahner, Johannes
作者单位：Justus Liebig University Giessen; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for centr...
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作者：Imbs, Jean; Pauwels, Laurent
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. ...
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作者：Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor; Levell, Peter; Parey, Matthias
作者单位：University of Surrey
摘要：We study the impact of Chinese import competition in the 2000s on workers and their households in England and Wales. We document both the direct employment changes of individuals affected by trade exposure, as well as the employment response of individuals whose partner is exposed to trade. We find substantial differences by gender. Men respond to import competition by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into self-employment. This is true both in response to thei...
