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作者：Cheng, Dong; Crucini, Mario J.; Oh, Hyunseung; Yilmazkuday, Hakan
作者单位：Union College; Purdue University System; Purdue University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; State University System of Florida; Florida International University
摘要：This paper curates historical data on the quantity and unit value of automobiles exported from the United States to 23 destination countries along with natural and official barriers relevant to automobiles to account for the 46:1 automobile adoption gap between the US and the median country by 1929. For the median destination country, the export markup, tariff, and shipping cost are each roughly 20% ad-valorem-equivalent distortions, the retail distribution wedge is about 30%, and the foreign ...
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作者：Georgiadis, Georgios; Jarocinski, Marek
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：We estimate international spillovers from both conventional and unconventional US monetary policy. We use novel measures of exogenous variation in conventional policy, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), based on high-frequency asset price surprises around a broad set of Federal Reserve communications. The identification relies on relatively weak assumptions and accounts for potential endogenous policy components-including central bank information effects-in these asset p...
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作者：Chung, Wanyu; Perroni, Carlo
作者单位：University of Birmingham; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Warwick; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Focusing on the 1989 Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), we examine how regional content requirements in Free Trade Areas (FTAs) affect competition and prices in intermediate goods markets. Content requirements in FTAs shelter firms from competition more than an equivalent trade-protection tariff would. We document patterns in US industry-level census data and Canadian product-level export data that align with theoretical predictions: stricter and binding content requirements a...
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作者：Beqiraj, Elton; Cao, Qingqing; De Haas, Ralph; Minetti, Raoul
作者单位：Sapienza University Rome; Michigan State University; European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; KU Leuven
摘要：We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates' monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centrali...
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作者：Li, Lei; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：We develop a quantitative theory of the long-run frequency of sovereign default, in which the government's willingness to risk crises reflects the sectoral composition of the economy. Development and structural transformation alter the trade-offs faced by the government, with the implication that default is largely a lower income country phenomenon, as in the data. Default impacts adversely the balance sheets of financial intermediaries, who then offer unfavorable rates on working capital loan...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures-a measure of ex ante temperature risk-varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 degrees C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent ...
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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Ferrero, Andrea; Mazin, Felipe; Nechio, Fernanda
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country's real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error...
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作者：Eaton, Jonathan; Eslava, Marcela; Jinkins, David; Krizan, C. J.; Tybout, James
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Copenhagen Business School
摘要：Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm's customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through market am...
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作者：Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.; Clance, Matthew W.; Silva, J. M. C. Santos
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Notre Dame; University of Notre Dame; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Pretoria; University of Surrey
摘要：Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on conditional mean estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based expectile regressions to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be l...
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作者：Baldomero-Quintana, Luis
摘要：I show that domestic trade costs shape national comparative advantage by studying planned highway upgrades in Colombia. I build a multisectoral economic geography model with multiple shipping routes, industry linkages, external economies of scale, and trade costs that depend both highways' speed and ports' usage. I discipline the model with data on customs transactions, domestic trade, and road travel times. My quantitative results show that the Ruta del Sol national highway would shift Colomb...
