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作者：Firooz, Hamid; Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentives for firms to reduce exposure to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor produ...
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作者：Choi, Jaedo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies how lobbying affects welfare gains from trade in a second-best world. I develop an open economy model of heterogeneous firms that can lobby to influence firm-specific distortions. As trade costs decline, exporters increase lobbying due to the complementarity between market size and lobbying benefits, impacting allocative efficiency, firm entry, and consequently gains from trade. I estimate the model using an IV strategy and indirect inference with US firm-level data. Gains f...
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作者：Carballo, Jeronimo; Graziano, Alejandro G.; Schaur, Georg; Martincus, Christian Volpe
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Nottingham; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. To do so, we first develop a theoretical model that extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. Second, we use detailed, highly disaggregated data on import processing dates and import values to provide estimates of processing costs that are consistent with the theory. This evidence indicates that our extensions to time-cost estimates are economically relevant to determining proce...
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作者：Imbierowicz, Bjoern; Nagengast, Arne; Prieto, Esteban; Vogel, Ursula
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Deutsche Bundesbank; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about fu...
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作者：Jo, Yoon Joo
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with d...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Challe, Edouard
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Paris School of Economics
摘要：We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOEHANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the open-economy divine coincidence result of Gal & iacute; and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, ineffic...
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作者：Velasquez, Agustin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. If workers have preferences such that income effects outweigh substitution effects, then a welfare-improving response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure time. Using a multi- country Ricardian trade model, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity that is composed by the wage (Marshallian) and trade elasticities. I estimate the hours-to-trade elasticity by exploiting exogenous income variation gen...
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作者：Camara, Santiago
作者单位：McGill University
摘要：This paper quantifies the international spillovers of U.S. interest rates by accounting for the Fed Response to News channel. Using the identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023a), we decompose monetary policy surprises into two components: a pure U.S. monetary policy shock and a Fed Response to News component around FOMC meetings. I find that a U.S. monetary tightening driven by pure policy shocks causes a global recessions, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter financial condition...
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作者：Mueller, Isabella; Sfrappini, Eleonora
作者单位：University of St Andrews; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
摘要：We analyze how firms' climate change-related regulatory risks affect banks' lending. Exploiting the Paris Agreement in a difference-in-differences setting, we find that effects depend on how borrowers will be affected by regulation as well as the stringency of the existing regulatory environment where firms are located. Firms that benefit from regulation receive more credit only if located in more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, firms hurt by regulation receive more credit if lo...
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作者：Meyer, Timothy
作者单位：University of Bonn; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth chan...
