Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gao, Han; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
• 署名单位: University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Sydney; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104058
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Money demand; monetary aggregates; monetary policy

摘要

We review the relationship between inflation, nominal interest rates, and rates of money growth for a group of OECD countries. Once regime changes are isolated in the data, the behavior of these series maintains the close relationship predicted by standard quantity theory models. With an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to frictions that can deliver different short-run dynamics. The trend component obtained from statistical filters does reasonably well in capturing these regime changes in estimated models. The quantity theory relationships are alive and well, and thus they are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.