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作者：Cai, Sheng; Xiang, Wei
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual anal...
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作者：Dosis, Anastasios
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; Universite Bourgogne Europe
摘要：This paper studies how the real interest rate affects the (mis)allocation of capital in a small open economy characterized by asymmetric information in the financial market. Low interest rates allow low-productivity firms to enter the pool of borrowers, imposing an information externality that negatively impacts highly productive firms and forces them to reduce their investments. This suggests that, in some cases, although lowering the interest rate can increase total investment and output, it...
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作者：Marczinek, Max; Maurer, Stephan; Rauch, Ferdinand
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Edinburgh; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Konstanz; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of St Gallen
摘要：We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, the Hansa continue to shape the composition of trade: Trade between cities in the Hanseatic network continues to be facilitated by Hanseatic captains for centuries. Our paper highlights the long-run stabil...
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作者：London, Melina; Silvestrini, Maeva
作者单位：European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm- to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when ...
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作者：Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Skiba, Alexandre; Terner, David
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Wyoming
摘要：We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization's CO2 emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports-covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade-we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO2 emissions in both the short- and...
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作者：Chen, Yao; Ward, Felix
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which...
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作者：Do, Hang; Duong, Kiet Tuan; Huynh, Luu Duc Toan; Vu, Nam T.
作者单位：University of Southampton; University of York - UK; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University System of Ohio; Miami University
摘要：Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade e...
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作者：Huennekes, Franziska; Konradt, Maximilian; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph; Wingenbach, Julian
作者单位：European Central Bank; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Germany is a world champion in exporting capital (Exportweltmeister). Few countries have invested larger amounts of savings abroad. However, we show that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. We construct a comprehensive new database of foreign investment returns for 13 advanced economies going back to the 1970s. Germany's foreign returns were 2 to 5 percentage points lower, per year, than those of comparable countries. Germany also earns significantly le...
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作者：Wu, Wenbin; You, Wei
作者单位：Peking University; Fudan University
摘要：In a system of cities model that incorporates urban externalities, equilibrium city sizes deviate from optimal city sizes, which suggests a role for government intervention. Using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates agglomeration benefits and costs and that is calibrated to data from China between 2000 and 2020, we show that it is generally welfare-reducing to control city sizes through internal migration restrictions since the frictions they introduce outweigh the benefits of co...
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作者：Noghanibehambari, Hamid
作者单位：Austin Peay State University
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between regional exposure to trade liberalization under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and infant health outcomes in the U.S., focusing on differences in impact across areas with varying levels of import competition. I explore this question by implementing event studies and difference-in-difference regressions that compare birth outcomes of infants born in different years relative to NAFTA and localities with differential exposure to im...
