Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China's WTO accession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Yuan, Weidi; Ouyang, Difei
• 署名单位: Nanjing University; University of International Business & Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Trade policy uncertainty; Manufacturing industry; Employment expansion; Chinese economy

摘要

This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China's manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China's comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry expansion can be traced to the extensive margin of new firm entry-consistent with firm-level evidence showing only a modest response among incumbent firms.