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作者：Bas, Maria; Fontagne, Lionel; Iodice, Irene; Orefice, Gianluca
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; University of Bielefeld; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine
摘要：This paper investigates the role of firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destinati...
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作者：Sobiech, Anna L.; Kgari, Lechedzani; Nguyen, Linh; Wilson, John O. S.
作者单位：University of Cologne; University of St Andrews
摘要：Do parent bank implicit guarantees enhance or diminish the stability of foreign subsidiaries? Using a quasi-natural experiment in the form of a regulatory intervention which removed parent banks' option to provide financial support to affiliated foreign subsidiaries, we find a substantial increase in the overall default risk of foreign subsidiaries. Less stringent private and supervisory oversight in host countries exacerbates the adverse impacts on risk. Overall, the results align with the no...
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作者：Norris, Jordan J.
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：In the presence of scale economies, industries are incentivized to localize production. Geography is key in determining where that localization happens. The Home Market Effect (HME) predicts that locations with the largest demand are the host and become net exporters. Yet, since its origin by Krugman (1980), the prediction has only been shown to hold in two-location models, therefore questioning its generality and empirical relevance. I offer a new formalization of the HME, provide succinct, s...
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作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Dong, Wei; Tomlin, Ben
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Bank of Canada
摘要：Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade wit...
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作者：Firooz, Hamid
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise al...
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作者：de Groot, Oliver; Durdu, C. Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：University of Southampton; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities th...
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作者：Wicht, Adrien
作者单位：University of Basel
摘要：This paper studies official multilateral lending in the sovereign debt market. Official multilateral debt receives priority in repayment, even though this is not legally required. It represents an important portion of total sovereign debt and increases both before and during a default. Defaults on official multilateral debt are infrequent, last relatively longer and are associated with greater private lenders losses. I develop a model with private and official multilateral lenders where the la...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
摘要：We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imp...
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作者：Solis, Pavel
作者单位：Bank of Mexico
摘要：This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risk...
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作者：Che, Yi; Lin, Donglin; Zhang, Yan
作者单位：East China University of Science & Technology; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a ...
