Fiscal policy and inflation in the Euro Area

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ascari, Guido; Bonam, Dennis; Mori, Lorenzo; Smadu, Andra
• 署名单位: University of Pavia; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104281
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: government spending shocks; vector autoregressions; monetary; demand; output

摘要

We investigate the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation dynamics in the Euro Area, with a focus on the post-pandemic inflation surge. Using a structural vector autoregression identified via sign restrictions, we disentangle the effects of various demand-and supply-side shocks, including fiscal policy, on inflation. First, while both positive demand and adverse supply shocks contributed to the inflation surge, demand shocks were relatively more important. Second, fiscal stimulus played a substantial and progressively increasing role, particularly in influencing domestic-based measures of inflation. Finally, despite cross-country heterogeneity in the inflationary effects of fiscal stimulus, fiscal shocks were largely synchronized across the Euro Area.