Optimal monetary and exchange rate frameworks for commodity-exposed economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Drechsel, Thomas; McLeay, Michael; Tenreyro, Silvana; Turri, Enrico D.
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104330
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: business cycles; POLICY; TRADE; MARKETS; prices; rules; terms

摘要

We show that the optimal monetary and exchange rate frameworks depend critically on the economy's commodity exposure. We develop a flexible but tractable model economy with commodity exports and imports, in which international financial conditions depend on the commodity cycle. Stabilizing domestic prices is optimal for commodity exporters, in line with standard open-economy policy prescriptions. But when economies import commodities as production inputs, optimal policy largely 'looks through' their direct and indirect effects on domestic prices. In emerging economies, where financial conditions are closely related to commodity cycles, trade-offs are starker and limited credibility may make implementing optimal policy challenging.