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作者：Patel, Nikhil; Peralta-Alva, Adrian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that sh...
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作者：Bellifemine, Marco; Couturier, Adrien; Jamilov, Rustam
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper develops a multi-country Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model of a monetary union with ex-ante heterogeneity in legacy public debt across member states. We calibrate the model to the euro area and show that, following symmetric aggregate shocks, the systematic monetary policy reaction induces heterogeneous national outcomes, driven by differences in fiscal space. This generates a trade-off between union-wide macroeconomic stabilization and cross-country synchronization of ...
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作者：Rogers, John; Sun, Bo; Wu, Wenbin
作者单位：Fudan University
摘要：Building on literature focused on the role of U.S. monetary policy in driving the global financial cycle, we quantify the relative importance of different shocks in an estimation framework that simultaneously identifies multiple shocks without timing or sign restrictions. Our analysis reveals significant roles for (i) U.S. corporate bond spreads, particularly the excess bond premium component, (ii) U.S. bank leverage, and (iii) the U.S. term premium. We additionally document a feedback loop th...
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作者：Rees, Daniel M.
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States' shift from being a net oil...
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作者：Herrerno, Juan; Rondon-Moreno, Carlos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We study the interaction between imperfect information and financial frictions and their role in financial crises in small open economies. We use a model where households observe income growth but cannot distinguish whether the underlying income shocks are permanent or transitory, and borrowing is subject to a collateral constraint. We show that the combination of imperfect information and a borrowing constraint is a significant source of economic instability. Optimal macroprudential policy he...
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作者：Bush, Georgia; Canon, Carlos
作者单位：Bank of Mexico; Bank of England; University of London; King's College London
摘要：This paper analyzes drivers of capital flows channeled by open-ended mutual funds, disentangling flows resulting from investor behavior and those resulting from fund manager reallocation. Using security-level data from Morningstar, we construct a novel dataset of global bond funds for the period 2011 to 2017, whose holdings include securities from 18 emerging market economies. By disaggregating flows and leveraging country-fund variation, we are able to identify differentiated effects of push ...
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作者：Koomen, Miriam; Wicht, Laurence
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We present new empirical evidence on the role of granularity in the current account (CA), using a unique and comprehensive firm-level dataset for Switzerland. We show that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms account for almost two thirds of the fluctuations in the headline CA and are the primary source of CA volatility. The granular effect is present across goods, services, and income components and persists over both short-and medium-term horizons. In addition to their direct impact, idiosync...
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作者：Ma, Hong; Ning, Jingxin; Xu, Yuan
作者单位：Tsinghua University; University of International Business & Economics; Beijing Normal University
摘要：This paper examines how the US-China trade war reshaped supply chains across the Asia-Pacific region. Using newly constructed product-level input-output linkages from Chinese customs transactions, we trace how US tariffs on downstream Chinese exports propagated across borders and production stages. We document that US tariffs significantly reduced Chinese exports to the US and, through upstream linkages, caused a 6.8% decline in China's imports from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Furthermore,...
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作者：Medina, Pamela; Sotelo, Sebastian; Velasquez-Cabrera, Daniel
作者单位：University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University
摘要：We examine how trade influences female labor supply through reductions in the prices of household appliances that substitute for domestic labor. Using a comprehensive data set from 1981 to 2017, which includes four population censuses, household surveys, and customs records from Peru, we show that labor force participation rose at the same time that appliance import prices fell. We then develop and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model of trade and household production, to quantitativel...
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作者：Do, Hang; Duong, Kiet Tuan; Huynh, Luu Duc Toan; Vu, Nam T.
作者单位：University of Southampton; University of York - UK; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University System of Ohio; Miami University
摘要：Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade e...
