A nascent international financial channel of China's monetary policy transmission

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro; Zhou, Sili
• 署名单位: Fudan University; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104230
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: wealth

摘要

Chinese portfolio equity outflows grew significantly over time due to capital account liberalization. Using matched stock-fund holding data under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, we identify a nascent financial channel of international transmission of Chinese monetary policy to world stock markets. Event studies around monetary policy announcement days uncover a cross-sectional differential impact: returns on MSCI indexes and U.S. stocks with QDII exposure are more responsive than those of non-exposed ones. The effects are driven by smaller, less liquid, and lower-turnover stocks, but not by China-concept stocks, or those exposed to mainland macroeconomic shocks. We also provide evidence consistent with a retail-driven portfolio-rebalancing mechanism: tightening periods are associated with outflows from QDII funds with high equity portfolio shares that fund managers do not fully offset. Retail flows also seem more closely associated with monetary policy changes than institutional flows.