Multinational investment activity under policy uncertainty in host and competing countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kim, Daisoon; Lee, Sunhyung
• 署名单位: North Carolina State University; Montclair State University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104252
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: trade; greenfield; mergers; shocks; FDI

摘要

This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in host and competing countries reshapes U.S. multinationals' greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Using firm-destination level data from 2003 to 2021, we show that while host-country EPU deters investment, EPU in competing destinations attracts it through a spillover effect. We document a structural shift around 2015: as global EPU rose unevenly, the spillover effect from competitors became the dominant driver of investment decisions, supplanting the direct effect of host-country policy instability. Our findings indicate that in an era of heightened global uncertainty and risk, FDI allocation is governed by relative, not just absolute, policy stability.