The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cavalcanti, Tiago; Ogeda, Pedro; Ornelas, Emanuel
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104249
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: liberalization; TARIFFS

摘要

We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil's labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets. Following higher Brazilian exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese exports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These asymmetric responses are consistent with Brazil's pattern of comparative advantage. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars.