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作者：Janeba, Eckhard; Schjelderup, Guttorm
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：The OECD's global minimum tax (GMT) of 15% on what is deemed excess profit of multina-tionals aims to reduce profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions. . We study the revenue effects of the GMT by focusing on strategic tax setting effects. The direct effect from less profit shifting increases revenues in high-tax countries. A secondary effect, however, is that the value of attracting foreign investments increases, which intensifies tax competition. We show that when governments compete via lump...
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作者：Kohl, Miriam; Richter, Philipp M.
作者单位：Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：This paper examines the effects of a unilateral reform of a redistributive tax-transfer system in an open economy. Compared to autarky, a tax increase leads to a smaller decline in aggregate income in the open economy, and it is also more effective at reducing income inequality, provided the tax rates are sufficiently low. Aggregating effects on income and income inequality using an Atkinson social welfare function, we find that optimal tax rates are positive in the open economy and higher tha...
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作者：Liu, Chen; Ma, Xiao
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
摘要：We build a multi-sector spatial general equilibrium model that features heterogeneous firms' and workers' location choices to account for China's export surge between 1990 and 2005 using three policy changes: China's import tariffs, tariffs imposed against China's exports, and barriers to internal migration in China. We find that tariff and migration policies jointly ac-counted for 30% of China's export growth. We also find evidence that suggests a positive inter-action effect of tariff and mi...
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作者：Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; Kapadia, Sujit; Simsek, Ozgur
作者单位：Bank of England; European Central Bank; University of Bath
摘要：We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870-2016. Most nonlinear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley values, uncovering nonlinear relationships between the predictors and crisis risk. Throughout, the most important predict...
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作者：Kichko, Sergei; Picard, Pierre M.
作者单位：University of Trento; University of Luxembourg; Universite Catholique Louvain
摘要：This paper studies the market and welfare effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive product markets in the context of nonhomothetic preferences. In a closed economy, where richer individuals' expenditures are less sensitive to price change compared to poorer ones', a mean-preserving contraction of income distribution entices firms to charge higher markups, reduce output, and fosters creation of new varieties. General equilibrium effects have a negative impact on poorer in...
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作者：Jeanne, Olivier; Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：We use a tractable model to show that emerging markets can protect themselves from the global financial cycle by expanding (rather than restricting) capital flows. This involves accumulating foreign liquid assets when global liquidity is high to then buy back domestic assets at a discount when global financial conditions tighten. Since the private sector does not internalize how this buffering mechanism reduces international borrowing costs, a social planner increases the size of capital flows...
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作者：Monarch, Ryan; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
作者单位：Syracuse University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：More than 80 percent of U.S. imports occur in preexisting firm-to-firm relationships, and disruptions to them can have large and long-lasting effects. Using U.S. Census data, this paper shows that as importers and their suppliers transact repeatedly, traded quantities and survival probabilities rise. We develop a general equilibrium trade model with relationship dynamics that is consistent with these facts. The quantification implies that long-term relationships are substantially more valuable...
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作者：Chu, Angus C.; Peretto, Pietro; Xu, Rongxin
作者单位：University of Macau; Duke University
摘要：This study develops an open -economy Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous takeoff to explore the effects of exports on the transition of an economy from stagnation to innovation -driven growth. We find that a higher export demand raises the level of employment, which causes a larger market size and an earlier takeoff along with a higher transitional growth rate but has no effect on long -run economic growth. These theoretical results are consistent with empirical evidence that we documen...
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作者：Gorrin, Jesus; Morales-Arilla, Jose; Ricca, Bernardo
作者单位：University of Warwick; Princeton University; Insper
摘要：This paper finds that law enforcement interventions during the Mexican Drug War (MDW) hindered local export growth. We leverage exogenous variation in drug enforcement from the close election of mayors affiliated with the national ruling party during the MDW. Firms servicing the same markets but exogenously exposed to drug enforcement experienced lower export growth. The MDW decreased capital investments, eroding productivity gains in capital-intensive activities.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All...
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作者：Freylejer, Leandro; Orr, Scott
作者单位：University of Northern British Columbia; University of British Columbia
摘要：The United States passed a series of precursor control laws between 2004 and 2006 which aimed to decrease illicit methamphetamine production by limiting access to key inputs. We provide ev-idence that this caused suppliers to substitute towards Mexican-produced methamphetamine. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that the treatment effect of pre-cursor controls on lab seizures was largest in the middle of the United States. This is consistent with substitution to...
