Longevity and the value of trade relationships

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Monarch, Ryan; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
• 署名单位: Syracuse University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103842
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: International trade; Firm relationships; learning; Trade dynamics

摘要

More than 80 percent of U.S. imports occur in preexisting firm-to-firm relationships, and disruptions to them can have large and long-lasting effects. Using U.S. Census data, this paper shows that as importers and their suppliers transact repeatedly, traded quantities and survival probabilities rise. We develop a general equilibrium trade model with relationship dynamics that is consistent with these facts. The quantification implies that long-term relationships are substantially more valuable to firms than new relationships, with wide variation across source countries. Losing relationship capital is costly for an economy, with disruptions to relationships causing notably lower levels of consumption and trade in the short-to medium term.