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作者：Cakmakli, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Ozcan, Sebnem Kalemli; Yesiltas, Sevcan; Yildirim, Muhammed A.
作者单位：Koc University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Durham University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy. We use a two-country framework combined with a sectoral SIR model to estimate the effects of collapses in foreign demand and supply. The small open economy (country one) suffers from domestic demand and supply shocks due to its own pandemic. In addition, there are external shocks coming from the rest of the world (country two). Aggregate exports of the small open economy decline when foreign demand goes down, and aggre...
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作者：Cusolito, Ana P.; Darova, Ornella; McKenzie, David
作者单位：The World Bank; University of Pennsylvania; The World Bank
摘要：The limited market size of many small emerging economies is a key constraint to the growth of innovative small and medium enterprises. Exporting offers a potential solution, but firms may struggle to locate and appeal to foreign buyers. We conducted a six-country randomized experiment with 225 firms in the Western Balkans to test the effectiveness of 30 h of live groupbased training and 5 h of one-on-one remote consulting in overcoming these constraints. Treated firms used techniques such as s...
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作者：Ossa, Ralph; Staiger, Robert W.; Sykes, Alan O.
作者单位：University of Zurich; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：International investment agreements employ dispute settlement procedures that differ markedly from their counterparts in trade agreements. A prominent and controversial differ-ence arises with respect to the issue of standing: Who has the right to complain to adjudica-tors about a violation of the agreement? While trade agreements limit standing to the member governments (state-to-state dispute settlement), investment agreements routinely extend standing to private investors as well (investor-...
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作者：Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Delpeuch, Samuel; Lopez-Forero, Margarita
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Universite Paris Saclay
摘要：Based on French firm-level data, we evaluate the contribution of the micro-level profit-shifting -through tax haven foreign direct investments- to the aggregate productivity slowdown mea-sured in France. We show that firm measured productivity in France declines over the years following the establishment in a tax haven, with an average estimated drop by 3.5% in appar-ent labor productivity. To isolate the contribution of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) tax optimization to the decline in prod...
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作者：Egger, Peter H.; Loumeau, Gabriel; Loumeau, Nicole
摘要：We document an unprecedented change in the size and the quality of China's transport -infrastructure network between 2000 and 2013 based on hand-collected and digitized data on roads and railways. The changes are summarized and portrayed as shortest-possible trans-port times of people and goods between 330 prefectures of mainland China. A quantitative model of China's prefectures and a Rest of the World, featuring both goods trade and migra-tion, suggests that the transport-infrastructure chan...
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作者：Traiberman, Sharon; Rotemberg, Martin
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We characterize optimal trade policy when there is a potential crisis: an increase in demand for goods produced abroad. In our model, comparative advantage is endogenous, as countries cannot start producing new goods after the shock. In anticipation, the optimal policy uses tariffs to encourage the production of more goods. For marginally competitive goods, the optimal policy trades off comparative advantage and demand. However, the home planner never protects goods where comparative advantage...
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作者：Breedon, Francis; Chen, Louisa; Ranaldo, Angelo; Vause, Nicholas
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Sussex; University of St Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Bank of England
摘要：A key issue for decentralised markets like FX is how the market responds to extreme situations. Using data on FX transactions with a precise identification of Algorithmic trading (AT), we find that AT, broadly defined, appears to have contributed to the deterioration of market quality fol-lowing the removal of the cap on the Swiss franc on 15 January 2015 by withdrawing liquidity and generating uninformative volatility. We also find that the Swiss National Bank, after ini-tially stepping aside...
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作者：Dhyne, Emmanuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Kong, Xianglong; Mogstad, Magne; Tintelnot, Felix
作者单位：European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium; University of British Columbia; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a model of endogenous production networks with fixed costs in the formation of links between firms. We show that the closed economy equilibrium is unique if the set of feasible networks consists only of networks that are acyclic and the buyer initiates the link formation while having full bargaining power in price negotiations with the supplier. We provide examples of multiple equilibria if the supplier initiates the link formation in both cyclic and acyclic feasible networks or if ...
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作者：Freitag, Andreas; Lein, Sarah M.
作者单位：University of Basel; University of Basel
摘要：We document how product quality responds to exchange rate movements and quantify the extent to which these quality changes affect the aggregate pass-through into export prices. We analyze the substantial sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc post removal of the 1.20-CHF-per-euro lower bound in 2015 using export data representing a large share of the universe of goods exports from Switzerland. We find that firms upgrade the quality of their products after the appreciation. Furthermore, they di...
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作者：Cavallino, Paolo; Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：Contrary to Mundell's trilemma, we show that free capital mobility may prevent monetary pol-icy from ensuring output stability even if the exchange rate is flexible due to the existence of an Effective Lower Bound. The ELB is an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary because of adverse effects on credit supply. A tightening in global monetary and financial conditions increases the ELB and may force central banks to hike rates even though domestic economic ac...
