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作者：Oskolkov, Aleksei
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper studies the role of exchange rate regimes in shaping the distributional effects of external monetary shocks. I model a small open economy where agents differ in wealth and in exposure to international trade, producing either tradable or non-tradable goods. The central bank responds to a foreign interest rate hike by a monetary tightening to stabilize the exchange rate or lets the currency depreciate, keeping the interest rate low. I find that exchange rate flexibility distributes co...
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作者：Boermans, Martijn A.; Burger, John D.
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; Loyola University Maryland
摘要：Policymakers fear the destabilizing impact of fickle global investors on emerging markets. Euro area investors are significant participants in emerging bond markets and exhibit volatile flows, but their fickleness does not result in indiscriminate periods of surge and flight. Employing granular data, we discern important investor differentiation by currency denomination and issuer-level risk factors. First, euro area investors exhibit a home currency bias leading to both strong cross-sectional...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; Devereux, Michael B.; Yu, Changhua
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Peking University; Peking University
摘要：We model sudden stops in a small open economy as rare discrete events precipitated by increases in the world risk-free rate. When external debt is large, the model exhibits multiple equilibria, one where external debt and consumption remain high, and one with a collapse in external debt and consumption. Private agents delever following an increase in the world inter-est rate, but they fail to internalize the impact of deleveraging on the price of collateral. For high levels of external debt, e...
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作者：Gu, Grace Weishi; Hale, Galina
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Climate-related risks have increased in recent decades, both in terms of the frequency of extreme weather events (physical risk) and the implementation of climate-change mitigation policies (transition risk). This paper explores whether multinational firms react to such risks by altering their presence in countries that are more affected. We measure this by examining foreign direct investment (FDI) dynamics at different levels of aggregation as well as at the firm level. We propose a theoretic...
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作者：Caliendo, Lorenzo; Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; Macquarie University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We derive a new formula for the optimal uniform tariff in a small-country, heterogeneous firm model with roundabout production and a nontraded good. Tariffs are applied on imported intermediate inputs. First-best policy requires that markups on domestic intermediate inputs are offset by subsidies. In a second-best setting where such subsidies are not used, roundabout production and the monopoly distortion in the traded sector create strong incentives to lower the optimal tariff on imported inp...
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作者：Keller, Wolfgang; Utar, Hale
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Grinnell College
摘要：We employ employer-employee matched data from Denmark and utilize plausibly exogenous variation in the rise of import competition due to the dismantling of import quotas as China entered the World Trade Organization to show, first, that rising import competition has led to reduced employment in mid-wage occupations compensated by an increased likelihood of employment in both low-wage and high-wage occupations. Workers with higher education are more likely to move from mid-to high-wage occupati...
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作者：Hsieh, Chang -Tai; Li, Nicholas; Ossa, Ralph; Yang, Mu-Jeung
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Toronto Metropolitan University; University of Zurich; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We propose a sufficient statistic to measure the ex-post welfare gains from trade in CES models featuring any productivity distribution and any pattern of selection into production and exporting. This statistic is based on a single data moment, the change in the market share of continuing domestic producers, and a single structural parameter, the elasticity of substitution between products. We apply our statistic to measure Canada's gains from the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement using data on o...
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作者：Krishna, Pravin; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ma, Lin; Maloney, William F.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Singapore Management University; The World Bank; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality growth and the corresponding cross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country are positively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance of quality changes are positively correlated with the ...
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作者：Aldasoro, Inaki; Beltran, Paula; Grinberg, Federico; Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); International Monetary Fund
摘要：We provide novel empirical evidence on the effects of cross-border bank lending on emerging market economies' (EMEs) macro-financial conditions. We identify causal effects by leveraging the heterogeneity in the size distribution of bilateral cross-border bank lending to construct granular instrumental variables for aggregate cross-border bank lending to 22 EMEs. Cross-border bank credit causes higher domestic activity in EMEs and looser financial conditions. Financial condition indices ease, n...
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作者：Lutz, Flora; Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold
作者单位：University of Vienna; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to a pecuniary externality, individual agents overborrow and hold too little liquid assets relative to a social planner. This inefficiency rationalizes macroprudential policy intervention in the form of reserve accumulation at the central bank to stabilize trade and the real exc...
