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作者：Caballero, Maria Esther; Cadena, Brian C.; Kovak, Brian K.
作者单位：American University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration inc...
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作者：Fillat, Jose L.; Garetto, Stefania; Corea-Smith, Arthur, V
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Cornerstone Research
摘要：Regulatory reforms typically follow financial crises. We propose a model of global banking that can be used proactively to study alternative regulatory policies. The model mimics the US reg-ulatory framework and highlights the organizational choices that banks face when entering a foreign market: branching versus subsidiarization. The model is able to replicate the response of the US banking sector to the European sovereign debt crisis. Counterfactual analysis suggests that pervasive subsidiar...
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作者：Zheng, Huanhuan
作者单位：National University of Singapore
摘要：We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sover-eign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs-governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules en-hance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default r...
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作者：Nigai, Sergey
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：This paper argues that the cost of trade-induced inequality in terms of aggregate gains from trade is decreasing with globalization. I use a general equilibrium model of trade and show that at low levels of trade openness, a 1% point increase in real per capita income due to higher trade is associated with percentage point increases of 0.5, 0.85, and 0.92 in the Gini, Atkinson and Theil indices, respectively. These trade-offs, however, quickly decline upon opening up to trade and converge towa...
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作者：Hong, Seungki
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：This paper estimates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory income shocks for an emerging economy, Peru, using its nationally representative household survey. The mean quarterly MPC across Peruvian income deciles is 0.204, which translates to a mean annualized MPC of 0.545-0.592 under both model-free and model-based annualization methods. To compare Peruvian and U.S. MPCs reflecting the different reference periods of the underlying surveys, I employ a standard incomplete-ma...
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作者：Kobielarz, M. L.
作者单位：KU Leuven
摘要：The Eurozone bailouts consisted of credit lines with favorable lending conditions, equivalent to countries receiving implicit fiscal transfers. They are often interpreted as meant to prevent a default in the Eurozone or resolve the crisis. Contrary to this narrative, Greece defaulted on its debt and went through a deep and prolonged recession, despite receiving fiscal assistance. This paper analyzes country bailouts in a monetary union within a framework where sovereign default and exit from t...
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作者：Mengus, Eric
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：This paper provides a theory of endogenous implicit guarantees on risky assets, in which a government's bailouts take the form of asset purchases to alleviate asymmetric information on private liquidity needs. As a result of asymmetric information, direct transfers to agents are imperfect so that, when more constrained agents are also more exposed to a given asset, asset purchases by the government are optimal. When anticipated, this form of bailouts leads to an endogenous implicit guarantee p...
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作者：Oskolkov, Aleksei; Sora, Marcos
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We study macroprudential policy aimed at domestic debt denominated in different currencies. We model a small open economy with entrepreneurs and workers who save and borrow in domestic and foreign currency. Financial frictions make dollar debt on entrepreneurs' balance sheets especially disruptive when the exchange rate depreciates. Falling output causes additional depreciation; this amplification provides a rationale for de-dollarization. On the other hand, de-dollarization is costly because ...
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作者：Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.; von Peter, Goetz
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); The World Bank; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：This paper presents novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance using country-to-country data. To do so, the paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, portfolio investment, foreign direct investment, and international reserves from 2001 to 2018. The main findings are that investments involving the South, and especially within the South, have grown faster than those within the North. By 2018, South-to-South investments accounted...
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作者：Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain
作者单位：European University Institute; European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：How should monetary policy respond to excessive capital inflows that appreciate the currency and widen the external deficit? Using the workhorse open-macro model, we derive a quadratic approximation of the utility-based global loss function in incomplete market economies, and solve for the optimal targeting rules under cooperation. The optimal monetary stance is expansionary if the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on import prices is complete, contractionary if nominal rigidities attenuate ER...
