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作者：Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：I develop a dynamic theory of exporting that synthesizes two approaches: static models, in which exporting costs depend on the number of foreign customers a firm serves in the present; and dynamic models, in which these costs depend on whether a firm exported in the past. The theory simultaneously accounts for two sets of established empirical findings: (i) larger markets attract exports from more firms and these exports are more concentrated; and (ii) new exporters are generally smaller and m...
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作者：Niepmann, Friederike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper develops a model of banking across borders where banks differ in their efficiencies. Operating abroad allows the most efficient banks that have a large enough scale to overcome the associated fixed costs to increase their leverage, size and profits even more. Banking globalization increases welfare because these banks, by maximizing the return on loans and minimizing funding costs, improve the allocation of capital by channeling capital across borders. At the same time, global banki...
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作者：Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Goncalo
作者单位：Santa Clara University; heSam Universite; ESCP Business School
摘要：We estimate the impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870-1913. Specialization and trade integration subjected economies to a commodity lottery in the form of price fluctuations in world markets. Capital mobility and a currency peg exposed them to interest-rate movements originating i...
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作者：Ferreira, Thiago R. T.; Shousha, Samer
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Insper
摘要：We provide a comprehensive account of the determinants of global longer-run neutral interest rates-the real component of policy interest rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their longer-run trends. Using a cross-country model for 11 advanced economies in the 1960-2019 period, we simultaneously account for productivity, demographics, global supply of safe assets, demand factors for safe assets, and global spillovers faced by each economy from the rest of the world's de...
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作者：Goldberg, Linda S.; Krogstrup, Signe
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countr...
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作者：Cook, David; Patel, Nikhil
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade in a world characterized by the dominant currency paradigm and global value chains. Using a three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, it documents key differences between the response of gross and value added trade flows to interest rate shocks, and offers a framework to test them in the data. The exercise uncovers a new margin of adjustment where value added trade fl...
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作者：Bordo, Michael D.; Meissner, Christopher M.
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Do exchange rate movements matter for how markets price foreign currency denominated sovereign bonds? High-frequency bond price data from 1931 show that depreciation against the dollar/gold was associated with elevated risk premia on US dollar/gold public debt. We use a theoretical model to illustrate how foreign currency debt influences exchange rate policy and foreign currency bond prices. We use these theoretical results, the timing of sterling's devaluation in September 1931, and historica...
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作者：Fonseca, Luis; Nikalexi, Katerina; Papaioannou, Elias
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of London; London Business School
摘要：The internationalization of corporate control is a complex and poorly understood aspect of globalization, as it is challenging to trace controlling shareholders due to often opaque structures of ownership. We identify controlling shareholders for 22,000 listed firms to study the globalization of control. The network of international control appears very sparse, with strong home bias. A baseline gravity structure works well, as bilateral links are more potent for populous, affluent, and proxima...
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作者：Fieler, Ana Cecilia; Harrison, Ann E.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：In panel data on Chinese establishments spanning the 2001 WTO accession, import competition is associated with increases in revenue productivity. We propose a model that interprets this (and additional evidence) as firms choosing to differentiate their products to escape import competition. In the model, the profit from endogenous differentiating is decreasing in trade costs and is an inverted U-shaped function of productivity. We estimate the model and study a counterfactual trade liberalizat...
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作者：Huang, Yi; Lin, Chen; Liu, Sibo; Tang, Heiwai
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong Baptist University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We study the financial implications of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war for global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs are announced, U.S. firms that depend more on exports to and imports from China experience larger declines in market value, with the negative effect spilling over to the affected firms' suppliers and customers through production networks. The trade war effect is mainly concentrated among U.S. firms that sell to Chinese customers with low R&D intensity or outs...
