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作者：Ferrari, Alessandro; Picco, Anna Rogantini
作者单位：University of Zurich; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：This paper empirically evaluates whether adopting a common currency has changed the level of consumption smoothing of euro area member states. We construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables through the synthetic control method. We then use the output variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (1996) on both the actual and the synthetic data to study if there has been a change in risk sharing and through which channels. We find that the euro adoption has reduced risk sharing a...
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作者：Liu, Yan; Marimon, Ramon; Wicht, Adrien
作者单位：Wuhan University; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Basel
摘要：We develop an optimal design of a Financial Stability Fund that coexists with the international debt market. The sovereign can borrow defaultable bonds on the private international market, while having with the Fund a long-term contingent contract subject to limited enforcement constraints. The Fund contract does not have ex ante conditionality, but requires an accurate country-specific risk-assessment (DSA), accounting for the Fund contract. The Fund periodically announces the level of liabil...
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作者：Laeven, Luc; Popov, Alexander
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with a decline (increase) in bank lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in domestic (foreign) markets. This manifestation of tax arbitrage is particularly pronounced for banks with large fossillending exposures, suggesting a role for bank specialization. Lending to private companies in foreign markets increases relatively more, implying bank incentives to avoid public scrutiny. We also find that banks...
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作者：Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite de Lorraine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Lorraine; INRAE
摘要：Our evidence reveals that the rise in real GDP is uniformly distributed across sectors following a government spending shock while labor growth is concentrated in non-traded industries. A rationale behind these two findings lies in technology which responds endogenously to the government spending shock. While technology improvements are concentrated in traded industries, technological change is biased toward labor (capital) in non-traded (traded) indus-tries. To account for our evidence, we co...
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作者：Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：A long-standing puzzle is the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates. Recent literature has proposed models to forecast exchange rates at medium-and long-horizons. Such tests suf-fer from small-sample bias but inferring the true test distribution is difficult. We propose two approaches to address the problem. First, since economists are interested in the value of eco-nomic models versus purely statistical models, we propose a horse-race that pits the economic models not against the random...
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作者：Jiang, Lingduo; Lu, Yi; Song, Hong; Zhang, Guofeng
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Tsinghua University; Fudan University
摘要：This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the US-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the US on average reduces Chinese total exports to the US by 16.47%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export d...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy
作者单位：Harvard University; Bank of Canada
摘要：We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition evolved from temporary to more permanently discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that unexpected shocks to stockout levels have significant inflationary effects within thre...
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作者：Lastauskas, Povilas; Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Vilnius University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We build a new empirical model, which admits time-varying variances of local structural shocks, to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we docu...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Pagliari, Maria Sole
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：We explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up and estimate a three-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. The model is used to characterize the welfare-enhancing equilibrium under alternative containment policies. According to the optimal policy mix: i) fiscal policy focuses on reducing emissions; ii) countries cooperate with each other to reduce t...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Cordonier, Rachel; Merrouche, Ouarda
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：An unintended consequence of loose US monetary policy is the increase in currency risk exposure abroad. Using firm-level data on corporate bond issuances in 16 emerging market economies (EMEs) between 2003 and 2017, we find that EME companies are more likely to issue bonds in foreign currency when US interest rates are low. This effect is driven by nonexporters. Interestingly, capital controls on bond inflows significantly decrease the likelihood of issuing in foreign currency and can even eli...
