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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Bastos, Paulo; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine the effects of robotization on North-South trade patterns, wages and welfare. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and instrumental-variable regressions exploiting variation in exposure to robots across countries and sectors. Both reveal that greater robot intensity in own production leads to: (i) a rise in imports sourced from less developed countries in the same industry; and (ii) an even stronger increase in exports to those countries. To explain these findings we d...
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作者：Soderlund, Bengt
作者单位：Lund University
摘要：The strong negative relationship between geographical distance and trade is not well under-stood. I use the liberalization of the Soviet airspace to estimate the causal impact of business travel cost on trade. The liberalization radically reduced travel time between Europe and East Asia and was followed by a significant increase in trade. I find that the cost of business travel can account for a large share of the trade frictions that cause trade to sharply decline with dis-tance. A plausible ...
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作者：Yu, Chan
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics
摘要：Research has shown a limited labor mobility response to trade shocks. However, existing stud-ies of aggregate mobility may miss important heterogeneity. This paper proposes a mechanism through which local labor markets adjust to trade shocks, namely immigrant mobility. I find a relative decline in the immigrant population in areas more exposed to import growth from China. An interquartile increase in Chinese import exposure decreases the immigrant popula-tion by 5.4% but has little effect on t...
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作者：Pham, Hoang
摘要：In a heterogeneous-firm model with oligopsonistic local labor markets, this paper shows that opening up to trade can affect distortion in such markets. The distortion arises because firms are large and able to exercise market power over their local workers. Using a panel dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2007, I measure firm-level labor market distortion and examine their evolution following China's trade policy reform in 2001. I find that labor market distortion is pervasive...
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作者：Bergin, Paul R.; Corsetti, Giancarlo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; European University Institute
摘要：In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with global value chains and firm dynamics, we show that the optimal monetary response is expansionary. It supports activity and producer prices at the expense of aggravating short-run headline inflation-contrary to the prescription of the standard Taylor rule. This holds all ...
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作者：Claeys, Gregory; Papioti, Chara; Tryphonides, Andreas
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Cyprus
摘要：Using a structural approach, we combine bidding data from open market operations with macroeconomic information to recover the latent distribution of liquidity risk across financial institutions in Chile and how it is affected by policy. We find that unanticipated shocks to foreign reserve accumulation and interest rates have significant effects on aggregate beliefs about a liquidity shock in the near future. We demonstrate that accounting for market power is important for measuring the streng...
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作者：Gong, Robin Kaiji
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：This study examines how innovation by U.S. multinational firms affects the productivity of domestic Chinese firms in the same counties as the U.S. subsidiaries. After manually matching U.S. multinational firms with their manufacturing subsidiaries in China, I use citation-weighted patent stock to measure U.S.-produced external knowledge in Chinese counties and employ an instrumental variable strategy based on U.S. R & D tax credit policies to address potential endogeneity concerns. Findings su...
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作者：Bergstrand, Jeffrey H.; Cray, Stephen R.; Gervais, Antoine
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Notre Dame; University of Sherbrooke; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Two parameters are central to modern quantitative models of trade flows: the elasticity of substitution in consumption (a) and the inverse index of heterogeneity of firms' productivities (0). However, structural parameter estimation using the seminal Feenstra econometric methodology focuses on estimates of only a and a bilateral export-supply elasticity (labeled y). Separately, modern trade agreements are increasingly deep, meaning they reduce fixed trade costs alongside variable trade costs. ...
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作者：Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This paper develops estimates of TFP growth adjusted for movements in unobserved factor uti-lization for a panel of 29 countries and up to 37 years. When factor utilization changes are un-observed, the commonly used Solow residual mismeasures actual changes in TFP. We use general equilibrium dynamic multi-country multi-sector model to derive a production function estimating equation that corrects for unobserved factor usage. We compare the properties of utilization-adjusted TFP series to the s...
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作者：Albornoz, Facundo; Pardo, Hector F. Calvo; Corcos, Gregory; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
摘要：Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we show that firms expand their product scope and geographical presence sequentially. This process of internationalization is uneven over time, exhibiting more volatility early than later in the life cycle of exporters. Specifically, young exporters are particularly likely to exit, and if they keep exporting, to expand at the inten-sive and sub-extensive margins, doing so by widening product scope within a destination before entering new desti...
