Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hall, George J.; Sargent, Thomas J.
• 署名单位: Brandeis University; New York University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.3.192
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 192-214
• 关键词: market value; yield curve

摘要

This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)