Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
署名单位：
University of Southern California
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
1945-7707
DOI：
10.1257/mac.6.2.108
发表日期：
2014
页码：
108-136
关键词：
摘要：
During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income associated with the risk that a wife remains alone.
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