Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias
• 署名单位: University of London; Birkbeck University London; Banco de Espana
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170114
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 193-222
• 关键词: age; WEALTH; rates

摘要

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment, and real interest rates across OECD countries.