Dominant drivers of current account dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boer, Lukas; Lee, Jaewoo; Sun, Mingzuo
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics; Dongbei University of Finance & Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104199
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: US CURRENT ACCOUNT; developing-countries; exchange-rates; business-cycle; macroeconomics; MODEL; identification; prices

摘要

What are the key drivers of current account dynamics? We estimate shocks that explain most of the variation in the current account for the US and other G7 economies. Discovering that the dominant shocks contradict the expenditure switching effect at business cycle frequency, we then explore which macroeconomic shocks are behind these empirical dominant drivers of the current account. Rather than traditional aggregate shocks to supply and demand or recently emphasized financial shocks, shocks to the relative demand between home and foreign goods are found to play a pivotal role in current account dynamics.