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作者：Fanelli, Sebastian; Hallak, Juan Carlos; Yin, Yongkun
作者单位：University of Buenos Aires; Shandong University
摘要：Two facts distinctively separate exporter dynamics from firm dynamics. One is the strikingly low survival rate of new entrants into export markets. The second is that new entrants survive less than re-entrants. We argue that these two facts are particularly useful to discipline exporter dynamics models because many sources of firm heterogeneity (e.g. fixed costs) do not affect survival rates when firms time their entry decision optimally. We extend a standard exporter dynamics model by positin...
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作者：Mei, Yuan; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Peking University
摘要：Domestic policies regulating the horizontal dimensions of product differentiation can impede international trade and have become a major concern in contemporary trade negotiations. We estimate trade frictions associated with incompatible designs of electric plugs, a wellknown example of a horizontal regulatory barrier. Our findings indicate that fewer electronic devices are exported to destinations with incompatible electric plugs, and this effect operates through both the extensive margin and...
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作者：Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Heissel, Malte; Manu, Ana-Simona; Vinci, Francesca
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate the impact of expectations about future climate policy on investment decisions of fossil fuel firms. Our empirical analysis reveals that within the fossil fuel industry, firms with high exposure to climate policy significantly increased their investment in response to the Paris Agreement relative to firms with low exposure. Importantly, the result is driven by traditional investment in fossil fuel exploration and extraction with no indications that firms invested in a transition...
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作者：Simonovska, Ina; Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We consider five models of international trade that belong to the class of models in which the trade elasticity and domestic trade share are sufficient statistics for the welfare cost of autarky. Three are fixed-variety models featuring increasing micro-level margins of adjustment: versions of the Armington model, the Ricardian model, and its variable-markup counterpart. Two are endogenous-variety models featuring monopolistic competition: versions of the Krugman model and the Melitz model. Fo...
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作者：Cao, Dan; Evans, Martin D. D.; Luo, Wenlan
作者单位：Georgetown University; Tsinghua University
摘要：We examine the determinants of medium-run movements in real exchange rates. Using historical US-UK and cross-country data, we find that the real exchange rate co-moves with GDP at medium-run frequencies and the co-movements are significantly weakened by banking crises. This relationship can be rationalized by an extension of the IRBC model with non-stationary productivity shocks and risk-averse financial intermediaries, where crises increase intermediary risk aversion. Using a global solution ...
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作者：Ahn, Jaebin; Kim, Chan; Li, Nan; Manera, Andrea
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects cross-border knowledge diffusion by linking firm-level FDI events to patent citations. We assemble a global panel that merges utility patents with project-level greenfield and M&A investments in 60 countries over two decades. Using a new local-projection difference-in-differences methodology, we find that FDI raises bidirectional citation flows between investor and hosts, with stronger effects for greenfield than for M&A. Spillove...
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作者：Dao, Mai Chi; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the behavior of Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations-aka the CIP basis-in Emerging Markets (EM). A major challenge in computing the CIP basis in EM's lies in measuring local currency interest rates which are free of local credit risk and market segmentation. To do so, we construct a 'purified' CIP basis for eight major EM currencies using supranational bonds issued in EM local currencies and US dollar going back twenty years. We show that this 'purified' CIP basis aligns well with...
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作者：De Vries, Gaaitzen; Kruse, Hagen; Mensah, Emmanuel; Vidogbena, Yabo; Yi, Kei-Mu
作者单位：University of Groningen; The World Bank; Utrecht University; University of Pennsylvania; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the evolution of manufacturing value-added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects, substitution and relative price effects, and comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We ...
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作者：Caldara, Dario; Conlisk, Sarah; Iacoviello, Matteo; Penn, Maddie
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Yale University
摘要：Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Using a unique dataset containing historical macroeconomic data since 1900 for 44 economies, we find that geopolitical risks foreshadow high inflation, with the intensity of this effect differing across countries and historical periods. The rise in inflation is accompanied by lower economic activity; an increase in military spending, public debt, and money growth; supply disruptions; and a decline in international trade. Geopolitical risks are al...
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作者：Buiatti, Cesare; Duarte, Joao B.; Saenz, Luis Felipe
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
摘要：This paper investigates the convergence and subsequent divergence of labor productivity between the U.S. and Europe through a quantitative general equilibrium framework that integrates endogenous changes in employment shares as a function of exogenous and unbalanced labor productivity growth rates across sectors. We calibrate our model to the U.S. and test it against Europe from 1970 to 2019. Our model accurately captures structural transformation and aggregate labor productivity paths, as wel...
