US monetary spillovers to emerging markets: Both policy drivers and vulnerabilities matter
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
署名单位：
Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-1996
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104288
发表日期：
2026
关键词：
摘要：
How do U.S. monetary tightening shocks affect emerging market economies, and how does the impact depend on these economies' own macroeconomic vulnerabilities? We examine this question in a model that combines financial frictions with imperfect anchoring of inflation expectations, a key vulnerability in emerging markets. The degree of anchoring is disciplined using evidence that inflation expectations in emerging markets respond significantly to inflation surprises. Imperfect anchoring amplifies the contractionary effects of U.S. monetary shocks on emerging markets but also generates increases in inflation and nominal interest rates, patterns that we show are consistent with the empirical evidence but are not well explained by existing models. Our analysis also distinguishes between the drivers of U.S. policy tightenings. U.S. interest rate hikes resulting from stronger demand, rather than exogenous policy shocks, lead to modestly positive spillovers for emerging markets with well-anchored inflation expectations, but to substantial slowdowns in those with less-well-anchored expectations.