Expert inflation preferences and the evaluation of monetary policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wochner, Timo; Hack, Lukas; Potrafke, Niklas
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104317
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: expectations

摘要

What inflation rate should central banks target? Using two global surveys, we provide evidence on inflation preferences among economic experts-the group whose models and judgments inform monetary policy. We document that, although experts' preferred inflation rates are centered on central-bank targets, roughly half of them deviate (symmetrically) from the target. Cross-expert heterogeneity in preferences is driven by (i) beliefs about the costs of disinflation, (ii) normative views on the relative importance of different central bank objectives, and (iii) inflation narratives. Finally, we show that experts' preferences influence their evaluations of monetary policy decisions, suggesting that experts' preferences are likely to matter for policymaking.