Reshaping factory Asia: How did the US-China trade war affect the Asian-Pacific supply chain?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ma, Hong; Ning, Jingxin; Xu, Yuan
• 署名单位: Tsinghua University; University of International Business & Economics; Beijing Normal University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104327
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: tariffs; GROWTH

摘要

This paper examines how the US-China trade war reshaped supply chains across the Asia-Pacific region. Using newly constructed product-level input-output linkages from Chinese customs transactions, we trace how US tariffs on downstream Chinese exports propagated across borders and production stages. We document that US tariffs significantly reduced Chinese exports to the US and, through upstream linkages, caused a 6.8% decline in China's imports from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Furthermore, both China and the US reoriented parts of their supply chains toward alternative economies, especially ASEAN, but also Mexico and India. A quantitative Armington model shows that these adjustments generated heterogeneous welfare effects across countries: downstream economies such as ASEAN, Mexico, and India gained, whereas upstream suppliers such as Taiwan and South Korea incurred losses. We further show that, under broader 2025 tariff escalation with retaliation, world trade contracts and welfare declines in all countries.