Economic diversity and the resilience of cities

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: de Soyres, Francois; Fuchs, Simon; Kondo, Illenin O.; Maghin, Helene
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: trade; adjustment

摘要

We develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity. Applied to French labor markets, we find that diversification dampens the effect of negative shocks: both job-to-job moves and net inflows decline less in diverse cities than in concentrated ones. Overall, we document sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.