The price of delay: Supply chain disruptions and pricing dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baslandze, Salome; Fuchs, Simon
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Monash University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104265
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: inventories; markups; inflation; TRADE

摘要

We study how supply chain disruptions shape consumer prices. We develop a simple model showing how disruptions that cause delivery delays affect pricing through product availability, beyond standard cost pass-through, and extend it to include strategic interactions across firms. Empirically, we construct a novel micro-level dataset linking shipment-level U.S. import records from Bills of Lading to granular consumer prices from the Numerator panel. Using delivery shortfalls, port congestion, and import costs in a shift-share identification strategy, we estimate the pass-through of supply chain shocks to retail prices. We find sizable but incomplete pass-through: both imported-input cost shocks and delivery delays raise prices, with stronger responses when disruptions persist. Firms also raise prices when competitors face disruptions- including those that do not import directly-indicating strategic pricing spillovers. Combining these estimates with back-of-the-envelope calculations, we show such interactions substantially amplify aggregate price effects, particularly through product availability, during the pandemic.