Precautionary protectionism

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Traiberman, Sharon; Rotemberg, Martin
• 署名单位: New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103836
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Optimal tariffs; comparative advantage; Rustiness

摘要

We characterize optimal trade policy when there is a potential crisis: an increase in demand for goods produced abroad. In our model, comparative advantage is endogenous, as countries cannot start producing new goods after the shock. In anticipation, the optimal policy uses tariffs to encourage the production of more goods. For marginally competitive goods, the optimal policy trades off comparative advantage and demand. However, the home planner never protects goods where comparative advantage is low, even those with large demand shocks.