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作者：Frick, Mira; Iijima, Ryota; Ishii, Yuhta
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases (misspecified signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision problems. We characterize this ranking in static and dynamic settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors signal by signal, the dynamic characterization employs an efficiency index measuring how fast beliefs converge. We quantify and compare the severity of several well-documented bi...
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作者：Kuka, Elira; Shenhav, Na'ama
作者单位：George Washington University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Dartmouth College
摘要：This paper identifies the impact of increasing post -childbirth work incentives on mothers'long-run careers. We exploit variation in work incentives across mothers based on the timing of a first birth and eligibility for the 1993 expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. Ten to nineteen years after a first birth , single mothers who were exposed to the expansion immediately after birth ( early ), rather than 3-6 years later ( late ), have 0.62 more years of work experience and 4.2 percent hig...
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作者：Bayer, Christian; Born, Benjamin; Luetticke, Ralph
作者单位：University of Bonn; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：We show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian ( HANK ) model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach. To render estimation feasible , the structure of the economy can be exploited and the dimensionality of the model automatically reduced based on the Bayesian priors. We apply this approach to analyze how much inequality matters for the business cycle and vice versa. Even when the model is estimated on aggregate data alone and wit...
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作者：Deb, Joyee; Ory, Aniko; Williams, Kevin R.
作者单位：New York University; Carnegie Mellon University; Yale University
摘要：We study a dynamic contribution game where investors seek private benefits offered in exchange for contributions, and a single, publicly minded donor values project success. We show that donor contributions serve as costly signals that encourage socially productive contributions by investors who face a coordination problem. Investors and the donor prefer different equilibria, but all benefit in expectation from the donor's ability to dynamically signal his valuation. We explore various context...
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作者：Oprea, Ryan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic, positive monetary payments that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find, e.g., apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without scope for loss. Across subjects, anomalies in these deterministic tasks strong...
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作者：Fujiwara, Ippei; Matsuyama, Kiminori
作者单位：Keio University; Australian National University; Northwestern University
摘要：We propose a parsimonious mechanism for generating premature deindustrialization ( PD ) . In the baseline model, the Baumol effect drives the hump-shaped path of the manufacturing share. Countries follow different paths due to the difference in the sector-specific adoption lags. The condition for PD under which countries differ only in technology gap implies that the cross-country productivity dispersion is the largest in agriculture. Moreover, when calibrated to match Rodrik's ( 2016 ) findin...
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作者：Hurst, Erik; Rubinstein, Yona; Shimizu, Kazuatsu
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop a task -based model of occupational sorting to identify and quantify the effect of discrimination, racial skill gaps, and aggregate task prices on Black -White differences in labor market outcomes over time. At the heart of our framework is the idea that the size and nature of racial barriers faced by Black workers vary by the task requirements of each job. We define a new task that measures the extent to which individuals interact with others as part of their job. We show that this...
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作者：Houmark, Mikkel Aagaard; Ronda, Victor; Rosholm, Michael
作者单位：Aarhus University; Aarhus University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper studies the interplay between genetics and family investments in the process of skill formation. We model and estimate the joint evolution of skills and parental investments throughout early childhood. We document three genetic mechanisms: the direct effect of child genes on skills, the indirect effect of child genes via parental investments, and family genetic injluences captured by parental genes. We show that genetic effects are dynamic, increase over time, and operate via enviro...
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作者：Castro-Pires, Henrique; Chade, Hector; Swinkels, Jeroen
作者单位：University of Surrey; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Northwestern University
摘要：While many real -world principal -agent problems have both moral hazard and adverse selection, existing tools largely analyze only one at a time. Do the insights from the separate analyses survive when the frictions are combined? We develop a simple method-decouplingto study both problems at once. When decoupling works, everything we know from the separate analyses carries over, but interesting interactions also arise. We provide simple tests for whether decoupling is valid. We develop and num...
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作者：Huo, Zhen; Pedroni, Marcelo; Pei, Guangyu
作者单位：Yale University; University of Amsterdam; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper characterizes the effects of ambiguity aversion under dispersed information. The equilibrium outcome is observationally equivalent to a Bayesian forecast of the fundamental with increased sensitivity to signals and a pessimistic bias. This equivalence result takes a simple form that accommodates dynamic information and strategic interactions. Applying the result, we show that ambiguity aversion helps rationalize the joint empirical pattern between the bias and persistence of inflati...
