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作者：Munro, Evan; Kuang, Xu; Wager, Stefan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Stanford University
摘要：Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. We show how to identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-randomized trial run within a single large market. A Bernoulli-randomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects and of treatment-heterogeneity measures that enable welfare-improving targeting. Estimating spillovers-a...
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作者：Allcott, Hunt; Cohen, Daniel; Morrison, William; Taubinsky, Dmitry
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Cornerstone Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use public finance sufficient statistic approaches to characterize the welfare effects of nudges, such as simplified information and warning labels, in markets with taxes and endogenous prices. While many studies focus on average effects, we show that welfare also depends on how the nudge affects the variance of choice distortions, and average effects become irrelevant with zero pass-through or optimal taxes. We implement the framework with experiments evaluating automotive fuel economy lab...
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作者：Federico, Stefano; Hassan, Fadi; Rappoport, Veronica
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper identifies a credit-supply contraction that arises endogenously after trade liberalization. Banks with loan portfolios concentrated in sectors exposed to competition from China face an increase in nonperforming loans after China's entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result, they reduce the supply of credit to firms, irrespective of the firm's sector of operation. This cut in credit translates into lower employment, investment, and output. Through this mechanism, the financ...
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作者：Berndt, Antje; Duffie, Darrell; Zhu, Yichao
作者单位：Australian National University; Stanford University
摘要：For globally systemically important banks (GSIBs) with US headquarters, we find significant reductions in market-implied probabilities of government bailout after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), along with roughly 170 percent higher wholesale debt financing costs for these banks after controlling for insolvency risk. Since the GFC, bank creditors appear to expect much larger losses in the event that a GSIB approaches insolvency. In this sense, we estimate a decline of too big to fail. (G01,...
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作者：Kaniel, Ron; Orlov, Dmitry
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Adverse selection benefits firms able to identify talent. An informed intermediary expropriates agents' ability by threatening to fire and expose them to undervaluation of their skill. An agent's track record gradually reduces intermediary's information advantage. In response, the intermediary starts churning well-performing agents she knows are less skilled. The accelerated reduction in information advantage boosts profits, as retained agents accept below-reservation wages to build reputation...
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作者：Hausman, Catherine
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Accelerated investment in electricity transmission could reduce total costs and enhance renewable integration. I document static allocative inefficiencies induced by incomplete market integration in 2 major US markets; these have risen over time and totaled $2 billion in 2022. I also argue that estimating firm-level impacts is important, as incumbents may have the power to block new lines and other reforms. I show that 4 firms would have experienced a collective $1.3 billion drop in net revenu...
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作者：Chambers, Christopher P.; Masatlioglu, Yusufcan; Natenzon, Paulo; Raymond, Collin
作者单位：Georgetown University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Washington University (WUSTL); Cornell University
摘要：We introduce a new model of stochastic choice that assigns each choice option a utility, along with a salience parameter reflecting economic frictions. We characterize our model behaviorally and investigate its comparative statics properties. We show that the model generates intuitive closed-form solutions in equilibrium settings where firms can choose price, quality, and advertising. In addition, we show that the model allows for flexible substitution patterns and changes in market shares acr...
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作者：Choukhmane, Taha; Goodman, Lucas; O'Dea, Cormac
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); United States Department of the Treasury; Yale University
摘要：We study how couples allocate retirement-saving contributions across each spouse's account. In a new dataset covering over a million US individuals, we find retirement contributions are not allocated to the account with the highest employer match rate. This lack of coordination-which goes against the assumptions of most models of household decision-making-is common, costly, persistent over time, and cannot be explained by inertia, auto-enrollment, or simple heuristics. Complementing the admini...
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作者：Urvoy, Camille
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：What makes politicians respond to civil society organizations' demands? I use new data on government transfers to French associations and exploit close elections to show that politicians grant more funds to ideologically close organizations when the local incumbent is a political ally and was elected by a small margin. The results are consistent with politicians and organizations exchanging financial support for electoral support. Organizations secure funding because of the votes they can deli...
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作者：Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria; Patterson, Christina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; BI Norwegian Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010-2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1-2 percentage points. Using administrative mi...
