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作者：Cattaneo, Matias d.; Crump, Richard k.; Farrell, Max h.; Feng, Yingjie
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Tsinghua University
摘要：Binscatter is a popular method for visualizing bivariate relationships and conducting informal specification testing. We study the properties of this method formally and develop enhanced visualization and econometric binscatter tools. These include estimating conditional means with optimal binning and quantifying uncertainty. We also highlight a methodological problem related to covariate adjustment that can yield incorrect conclusions. We revisit two applications using our methodology and fin...
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作者：Greenberg, Kyle; Pathak, Parag a.; Sonmez, Tayfun
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
摘要：We present a proof-of-concept for minimalist market design (Sonmez 2023) as an effective methodology to enhance an institution based on stakeholders'desiderata with minimal interference. Four objectivesrespecting merit, increasing retention, aligning talent, and enhancing trust-guided reforms to the US Army's centralized branching process of cadets to military specialties since 2006. USMA's mechanism for the class of 2020 exacerbated challenges in implementing these objectives. Formulating the...
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作者：Kinnan, Cynthia; Samphantharak, Krislert; Townsend, Robert; Vera-cossio, Diego
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：Firms in developing countries are embedded in supply chains and labor networks. These linkages may propagate or attenuate shocks. Using panel data from Thai villages, we document three facts: as households facing idiosyncratic shocks adjust their production, these shocks propagate to other households on both the production and consumption sides; propagation is greater via labor than supply chain links; and shocks in denser networks and to more central households propagate more, while access to...
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作者：Van Doornik, Bernardus; Gomes, Armando; Schoenherr, David; Skrastins, Janis
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Washington University (WUSTL); Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We assess the employment and income effects of access to credit dedicated to investment in individual mobility by exploiting time -series variation in access to credit through lotteries for participants in a group -lending mechanism in Brazil. We find that access to credit for investment in individual mobility increases formal employment rates and salaries , yielding an annual rate of return of 12 to 15 percent. Consistent with a geographically broader job search , individuals transition to jo...
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作者：Kline, Patrick; Rose, Evan k.; Walters, Christopher r.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop an empirical Bayes ranking procedure that assigns ordinal grades to noisy measurements, , balancing the information content of the assigned grades against the expected frequency of ranking errors. Applying the method to a massive correspondence experiment, , we grade the race and gender contact gaps of 97 US employers, , the identities of which we disclose for the first time. The grades are presented alongside measures of uncertainty about each firm's contact gap in an accessible re...
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作者：Bollerslev, Tim; Li, Jia; Ren, Yuexuan
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Singapore Management University
摘要：Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. Good beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time -varying betas with high -frequency data. The local Gaussian property of the generic continuous -time benchmark model enables optimal finite -sample inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable in...
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作者：Daruich, Diego; Fernandez, Raquel
作者单位：New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Universal basic income (UBI) is an increasingly popular policy proposal, but there is no evidence regarding its longer-term consequences. We find that UBI generates large welfare losses in a genshocks, and intergenerational linkages via skill formation and transfers. This conclusion is robust to various alternative ways of financing UBI. By using observationally equivalent models that eliminate different sources of endogenous dynamic linkages (equilibrium capital market and parental investment...
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作者：Kolsrud, Jonas; Landais, Camille; Reck, Daniel; Spinnewijn, Johannes
作者单位：Linnaeus University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：effects of pension reforms. Using Swedish administrative data, we show that on average, workers who retire earlier consume less while retired and experience larger drops in consumption around retirement. Interpreted via a theoretical model, these findings imply that reforms incentivizing later retirement incur a substantial consumption smoothing cost. Turning to other features of pension policy, we find that reforms that redistribute based on early-career labor supply would have opposite-signe...
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作者：Aghamolla, Cyrus; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar; Li, Xuelin; Thakor, Richard T.
作者单位：Rice University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：This study examines the link between credit supply and hospital health outcomes. We use bank stress tests as exogenous shocks to credit access for hospitals that have lending relationships with tested banks. We find that affected hospitals shift their operations to increase resource utilization following a negative credit shock but reduce the quality of their care to patients across a variety of measures, including a significant increase in risk-adjusted readmission and mortality rates. The re...
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作者：Kelley, Erin M.; Lane, Gregory; Schonholzer, David
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：Small firms struggle to grow beyond a few employees. We introduce monitoring devices into commuter minibuses in Kenya and randomize which minibus owners have access to the data using a novel mobile app. We find that treated vehicle owners modify the terms of the contract to induce higher effort and lower risk taking from their drivers. This reduces firm costs and increases firm profitability. There is suggestive evidence that some firms expand. These results suggest that small firms may be abl...
