Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Oprea, Ryan
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221227
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 3789-3811
• 关键词: PROSPECT-THEORY; EXPECTED-VALUE; probability; utility; CHOICE; attitudes

摘要

We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic, positive monetary payments that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find, e.g., apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without scope for loss. Across subjects, anomalies in these deterministic tasks strongly predict the same anomalies in lotteries. These findings suggest that much of the behavior motivating our most important behavioral theories of risk derive from complexity-driven mistakes rather than true risk preferences.