A Technology-Gap Model of `Premature' Deindustrialization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fujiwara, Ippei; Matsuyama, Kiminori
• 署名单位: Keio University; Australian National University; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230133
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 3714-3745
• 关键词: structural-change; Agricultural productivity; income-distribution; demand; GROWTH; macroeconomics; patterns; TRADE; WORLD; size

摘要

We propose a parsimonious mechanism for generating premature deindustrialization ( PD ) . In the baseline model, the Baumol effect drives the hump-shaped path of the manufacturing share. Countries follow different paths due to the difference in the sector-specific adoption lags. The condition for PD under which countries differ only in technology gap implies that the cross-country productivity dispersion is the largest in agriculture. Moreover, when calibrated to match Rodrik's ( 2016 ) findings, it is the smallest in manufacturing. In three extensions, we add the Engel effect, international trade, and catching up by late industrializers, to demonstrate the robustness of the mechanism.