Trade wars and rumors of trade wars: The dynamic effects of the US-China tariff hikes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hoang, Trang; Mix, Carter
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104229
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: costs

摘要

We use a general equilibrium dynamic trade model to study the effects of the U.S.-China tariff hikes on the global economy. Our model captures key trade patterns since the tariff hikes, such as the pace of the decline in U.S.-China bilateral trade and the reallocation of global imports from the U.S. toward China. The welfare losses from the tariff hikes are much larger in our dynamic model than implied by static trade models. Expectations about the persistence of the tariff hikes shape aggregate dynamics in the short to medium run.