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作者：Dembo, Aluma; Kariv, Shachar; Polisson, Matthew; Quah, John K. -H.
作者单位：Reichman University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Leicester; National University of Singapore
摘要：The Allais critique of expected utility theory (EUT) has led to the development of theories of choice under risk that relax the independence axiom but adhere to the fundamental/conventional axioms of ordering (completeness and transitivity) and monotonicity (with respect to first-order stochastic dominance). Unlike experimental work designed to test independence, our experiment is comprehensive, testing the entire set of axioms on which EUT is based. Our econometric analysis is also nonparamet...
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作者：Koijen, Ralph S. J.; Yogo, Motohiro
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Princeton University
摘要：We develop an asset demand system to analyze the equilibrium relation between international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, and asset prices across all countries. We introduce a nested logit model of asset demand, for which we develop a new identification strategy by instrumental variables. Averaged across years and issuer countries, the demand elasticities are 27.9 for short-term debt, 3.2 for long-term debt, and 1.2 for equity. These demand elasticities are empirical targets fo...
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作者：Harstad, Bard; Holtsmark, Katinka
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oslo
摘要：We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in renewables fall and emissions may ultimately increase. When the gas producers cannot precommit, their policies can be counterproductive. A simulated version applied to Europe verifies that the gas trap is quantitatively important. We discuss the robustness...
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作者：Sadler, Evan
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：I propose a general theory of strategic network formation based on increasing marginal linking costs and vertical heterogeneity among the players. In the spirit of revealed preference, I describe the entire set of graphs that can be stable, without making any parametric assumptions about players' preferences. Stable graphs feature assortativity and clustering, and I highlight conditions that lead to hierarchies and cliquish behavior. Extensions shed light on which findings are robust and which...
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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Hebert, Benjamin; Kurlat, Pablo; Wang, Qitong
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：We use equity returns to construct a time-varying measure of the zero-beta interest rate: the expected return of a stock portfolio orthogonal to the stochastic discount factor. In contrast to safe rates, the zero-beta rate fits the aggregate consumption Euler equation remarkably well both unconditionally and conditional on monetary policy shocks and is high, volatile, and persistent enough to explain the average return and most of the volatility of the market portfolio. The puzzle is why safe ...
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作者：Espinosa, Miguel; Stanton, Christopher
作者单位：Bocconi University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines how training affects productivity across hierarchical layers within organizations. After a randomized training program for frontline employees at a government agency, trained workers' output increased while their requests for managerial assistance fell. This freed managers to focus on strategic tasks-particularly managers with the strongest connections to trained employees. A structural model of organizational hierarchy shows that spillovers to managers account for approxim...
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作者：Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We provide evidence that the quantitative importance of the Haar prior for posterior impulse response inference has been overstated. How sensitive posterior inference is to the Haar prior depends on the width of the identified set. This width depends not only on how much the identified set is narrowed by the identifying restrictions but also on the data through the reduced-form model parameters. Hence, the role of the Haar prior can be assessed only on a case-by-case basis. We show by example ...
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作者：Ellingsen, Tore; Mohlin, Erik
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Lund University
摘要：We develop and test a model of social duties. The model distinguishes unconditional duties to take or avoid certain actions from conditional duties that depend on the actions' payoffs. It also distinguishes strict duties (must do) from liberal duties (ought to do). The disutility associated with duty violation depends on the duty's strictness and is proportional to the externality the violation causes. The model rationalizes behavioral patterns that are incompatible with consequentialist prefe...
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作者：Whitmeyer, Mark
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：An updating rule specifies how an agent reacts to information. It is Blackwell monotone if more information is always better for an agent in any decision problem and strictly Blackwell monotone if, in addition, every strict information improvement is strictly better in some decision problem. Bayes's law is strictly Blackwell monotone. Within a broad class of updating rules-those that distort Bayesian posteriors in a signal-independent manner-it is the only strictly Blackwell-monotone updating ...
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作者：Heckman, James; Zhou, Jin
作者单位：University of Chicago; City University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper investigates the weekly evolution of skills as measured by unique data from a widely emulated early-childhood home-visiting program in rural China. The design of the study avoids input endogeneity issues and lack of comparable measures of skills that plague previous studies. Skills, nominally classified as the same, in fact, do not appear to share a common unit scale across levels. They are produced by skill- and life cycle-stage-specific learning processes. A novel dynamic stochast...
