-
作者：Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：New York University
摘要：This sequel to Lucas and Sargent (1978) tells how equilibrium Markov processes underlie much applied dynamic economics today. It recalls how Robert E. Lucas Jr. saw Keynesian and rational expectations revolutions as interconnected transformations of economic theories and econometric practices. It describes rules that Lucas used to guide and constrain his research by restricting himself to equilibrium Markov processes and to conserving quantitative successes achieved by previous researchers, in...
-
作者：Waldfogel, Joel
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
摘要：Women have traditionally participated in intellectual property creation at depressed rates relative to men. Book authorship is now an exception: women now publish more than half of new books. Adding new products can have significant welfare benefits, particularly when product quality is unpredictable. Growth in female-authored books has delivered substantial increases in the female-authored shares of consumption, book awards, and other measures of success, indicating that the additional female...
-
作者：Baseler, Travis; Ginn, Thomas; Hakiza, Robert; Ogude-Chambert, Helidah; Woldemikael, Olivia
作者单位：University of Rochester; Center for Global Development - Europe; University of Oxford; The New School
摘要：Many public policies create winners and losers, but it is unclear whether redistribution can support new political economy equilibria that raise aggregate welfare. We study policies that partially redistribute foreign aid for refugees to natives while allowing refugees to work and move freely. Cash grants to Ugandan and Kenyan natives, labeled as aid from the refugee response, substantially increase support for refugee integration. Information about existing redistribution has significant but ...
-
作者：Finan, Frederico; Mazzocco, Maurizio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of politicians who can engage in corruption. The model provides important insights into the determinants of corruption and how to design policies to combat it. We estimate the model using data from Brazil to measure voters' willingness to pay for various commonly proposed anticorruption policies, such as increasing audit probabilities, raising politicians' wages, and extending term limits. We document that while audit policies effectively reduce corrup...
-
作者：Le Grand, Francois; Ragot, Xavier
作者单位：Universite de Rennes; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We analyze optimal fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model with capital accumulation and aggregate shocks, where the government uses public debt, a capital tax, and a progressive labor tax to finance public spending. We first study a tractable model and show that the steady-state optimal capital tax can be positive if credit constraints are occasionally binding. However, the existence of such an equilibrium depends on the shape of the utility function. We also characterize the optimal dyn...
-
作者：Atal, Juan Pablo; Fang, Hanming; Karlsson, Martin; Ziebarth, Nicolas R.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Duisburg Essen; University of Gothenburg; University of Mannheim
摘要：German long-term health insurance (GLTHI) represents the largest market for private long-term health insurance contracts in the world. We show that GLTHI's contract design coincides with the optimal dynamic contract for individuals with constant lifetime income profiles. After estimating the key ingredients of a life-cycle model, we find that, under a variety of assumptions, GLTHI achieves welfare that is at most 4% lower than for the optimal contract. Relative to the gains of replacing short-...
-
作者：Nath, Ishan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：This paper evaluates the potential for global reallocation between agricultural and nonagricultural production to contribute to climate change adaptation. Empirical estimates using a global sample of firms suggest that rising temperatures reduce productivity less in nonagriculture than angriculture, implying large potential gains if hot countries could increase food imports and shift labor toward manufacturing. However, model counterfactuals show that subsistence consumption needs and high tra...
-
作者：Low, Hamish; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show the extent of screening errors made in disability insurance awards using matched survey-administrative data. False rejections are widespread, with large gender differences. Work-disabled women are 12.8 percentage points more likely to be rejected than work-disabled men, controlling for health conditions, occupation, and demographics. Gender differences arise because women are assessed with more residual work capacity. We model the Social Security Administration (SSA) decision-making pr...
-
作者：Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Pereira, Luciene Torres de Mello
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：We study the emergence and persistence of urban slums in Brazil. Using data on labor markets, housing costs, and access to education, we construct a quantitative model to explore the impact of slums on the country's human capital and structural transformation. Urban slums emerge and persist due to their dual roles as intergenerational stepping stones for low-educated households and as blockades for higher-educated ones. Providing slum children access to schools in formal urban areas would have...
-
作者：Raz, Itzchak Tzachi
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：This paper examines how environmental heterogeneity influences the formation of close-knit communities. I provide support for the social learning hypothesis, which posits that diverse environmental conditions limited American farmers' ability to learn from neighbors, weakening communal ties. I document a negative county-level association between soil heterogeneity and close-knit communities. Using individual-level data on nineteenth-century domestic migrants, I show that this association is no...
