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作者：Bierdel, Aime; Drenik, Andres; Herreno, Juan; Ottonello, Pablo
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Minnesota System; Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We study the macroeconomic implications of asymmetric information in capital markets. We build a model in which heterogeneous capital is traded in illiquid markets, with sellers better informed about its quality than buyers. Asymmetric information distorts the terms of trade for sellers of high-quality capital, who list higher prices and accept lower trading probabilities to signal their type. Guided by the model, we measure these distortions from the relationship between listed prices and tra...
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作者：Liang, Annie; Lu, Jay; Mu, Xiaosheng; Okumura, Kyohei
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Princeton University
摘要：Algorithm designers increasingly care not only about accuracy but also about fairness across predefined groups. We study the trade-off between these objectives and characterize it by a fairness-accuracy frontier: the set of outcomes that cannot be simultaneously improved in both dimensions. The shape of this frontier is governed by a simple property of the inputs, which we call group skew. In particular, reducing accuracy for both groups to increase fairness is justified if and only if inputs ...
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作者：Abaluck, Jason; Compiani, Giovanni; Zhang, Fan
作者单位：Yale University; University of Chicago; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：We state conditions under which choice data suffice to identify preferences when consumers may not be fully informed about attributes of goods. Our approach can be used to test for full information, forecast how consumers will respond to information, and conduct welfare analysis when consumers are imperfectly informed. In a lab experiment, we successfully forecast the average response to new information when consumers engage in costly search. In data from Expedia, our method identifies which a...
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作者：Gay, Victor; Gobbi, Paula E.; Goni, Marc
作者单位：Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Bergen
摘要：We test Le Play's 1875 hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France's early fertility decline by imposing equal partition of inheritance among all children, including women. We combine new data on local inheritance rules before the Revolution and individual-level demographic data from historical sources and crowdsourced genealogies. Difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity estimates show that the inheritance reforms enacted during the Revolution reduced completed f...
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作者：Covert, Thomas R.; Kellogg, Ryan
作者单位：Airbnb; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study policies that aim to keep carbon in the ground by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment. Our analysis relies on a model of hydrocarbon production and transportation, incorporating substitution between pipeline infrastructure and flexible alternatives, like crude-by-rail. We apply the model to the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which moves oil from North Dakota to Texas and was controversially completed in 2017. Had DAPL's construction been enjoined, we estimate that 82% of th...
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作者：Daruich, Diego
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：To study long-run large-scale early childhood policies, this paper incorporates early childhood investments into a general equilibrium heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model calibrated using US data. A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a short-run small-scale early childhood program in the model predicts effects on children's education and income that are similar to the empirical evidence. A long-run large-scale program, however, yields over twice as large welfare gains as t...
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作者：Londono-Velez, Juliana; Rodriguez, Catherine; Sanchez, Fabio; Alvarez-Arango, Luis Esteban
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study the impact of financial aid on upward mobility. We estimate the causal impacts of a Colombian policy targeting high-achieving, low-socioeconomic-status students on later-life educational and labor market outcomes. Using regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, and population-wide administrative microdata, we find that the policy boosted attendance and completion at high-value-added colleges, particularly in STEM fields. Improved college quality led to greater skill ...
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作者：Posch, Max; Schulz, Jonathan; Henrich, Joseph
作者单位：University of Exeter; George Mason University; Harvard University
摘要：This paper examines the impact of cultural diversity on innovation. Focusing on the United States from 1850 to 1940, we develop a novel surname-based measure of cultural diversity and combine this with patent data. Leveraging quasi-random variation in counties' surname compositions driven by historical immigration, we find that rising diversity increased both the quantity and the quality of innovation within counties and for individual inventors. Examining mechanisms, we provide evidence sugge...
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作者：Lin, Zhongjian; Vella, Francis
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; Georgetown University
摘要：We address the estimation of endogenous treatment models with social interactions in both the treatment and outcome equations. We model the interactions between individuals via a game theoretic approach based on discrete Bayesian games. We employ a nested pseudo joint likelihood algorithm when obtaining the model's parameters and provide relevant treatment effects and procedures for their estimation. Our empirical application examines the impact of an individual's exercise frequency on their l...
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作者：Atalay, Enghin; Frost, Erika; Sorensen, Alan; Sullivan, Christopher; Zhu, Wanjia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Calgary
摘要：We study changes in markups across 70 product markets from 2006 to 2018. A growing literature has documented rising markups using a production function approach. We instead estimate demand and invert firms' first-order pricing conditions to infer markups. To make the method scalable, we propose estimating nested logit demand models using household panel data to automate the assignment of products to nests. We find an overall upward trend in markups, with considerable heterogeneity across and w...
