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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, part-ners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the trade elastic-ity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find that the elasticity of tariff-exclusive trade flows is-0.76 in the short run, and approximately-2 in the long run. Our long-run esti-mates are smaller than typical in the literature, and it takes 7 to10 years to converge to the long run, implyin...
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作者：Bombardini, Matilde; LI, Bingjing; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This metho...
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作者：Gross, Daniel P.; Sampat, Bhaven N.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：During World War II, the US government's Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) supported one of the largest public investments in applied R&D in US history. Using data on all OSRD-funded invention, we show this shock had a formative impact on the US innovation system, catalyzing technology clusters across the country, with accompanying increases in high-tech entrepreneurship and employment. These effects persist until at least the 1970s and appear to be driven by agglomerative f...
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Mesters, Geert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
摘要：The evaluation of macroeconomic policy decisions has traditionally relied on the formulation of a specific economic model. In this work, we show that two statistics are sufficient to detect, often even correct, nonoptimal policies, i.e., policies that do not minimize the loss function. The two sufficient statistics are (i) forecasts for the policy objectives conditional on the policy choice and (ii) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to policy shocks. Both statistics can be estimat...
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作者：Avoyan, Ala; Ramos, Joao
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Southern California
摘要：We experimentally examine the efficacy of a novel pre-play institution in a well-known coordination game-the minimum-effort game-in which coordination failures are robust and persistent phenomena. This new institution allows agents to communicate while incrementally committing to their words, leading to a distinct theoretical prediction: the efficient outcome is uniquely selected in the extended coordination game. We find that commitment-enhanced communication significantly increases subjects'...
