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作者：Allen, Robert C.; Bertazzini, Mattia C.; Heldring, Leander
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; University of Oxford; University of Oxford; Northwestern University
摘要：We test between cooperative and extractive theories of the origins of government. We use river shifts in southern Iraq as a natural experiment, in a new archeological panel dataset. A shift away creates a local demand for a government to coordinate because private river irrigation needs to be replaced with public canals. It disincentivizes local extraction as land is no longer productive without irrigation. Consistent with a cooperative theory of government, a river shift away led to state for...
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作者：Abadi, Joseph; Brunnermeier, Markus; Koby, Yann
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Princeton University; Brown University
摘要：The reversal interest rate is the rate at which accommodative mon-etary policy reverses and becomes contractionary for lending. We theoretically demonstrate its existence in a macroeconomic model featuring imperfectly competitive banks that face financial frictions. When interest rates are cut too low, further monetary stimulus cuts into banks' profit margins, depressing their net worth and curtail-ing their credit supply. Similarly, when interest rates are low for too long, the persistent dra...
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作者：Oh, Suanna
作者单位：Paris School of Economics
摘要：How does identity influence economic behavior in the labor market? I investigate this question in rural India, focusing on the effect of caste identity on job-specific labor supply. In a field experiment, laborers choose whether to take up various job offers, which differ in associa-tions with specific castes. Workers are less willing to accept offers that are linked to castes other than their own, especially when those castes rank lower in the social hierarchy. Workers forgo large payments to...
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作者：Cullen, Zoe; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Offices are social places. Employees and managers take breaks together and talk about family and hobbies. In this study, we show that employees' social interactions with their managers can be advantageous for their careers, and that this phenomenon contrib-utes to the gender pay gap. We use administrative and survey data from a large financial institution and exploit quasi-random varia-tion induced by the rotation of managers. We provide evidence that when employees have more face-to-face inte...
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作者：Davila, Eduardo; Walther, Ansgar
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Imperial College London; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper studies leverage regulation when equity investors and/or creditors have distorted beliefs relative to a planner. We characterize how the optimal regulation responds to arbitrary changes in investors'/creditors' beliefs, relating our results to prac-tical scenarios. We show that the optimal regulation depends on the type and magnitude of such changes. Optimism by investors calls for looser leverage regulation, while optimism by creditors, or jointly by both investors/creditors, calls...
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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Pham, Tho; Talavera, Oleksander
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Reading; University of Birmingham
摘要：We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Federal Reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy m...
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作者：Korovkin, Vasily; Makarin, Alexey
作者单位：Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine con-flict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian fi...
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作者：Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：I study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. Imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive proba-bility, even when the players' preferences are common knowledge. Noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. In repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent's offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. In alternating-offers bargaining, a player is bette...
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作者：Ray, Debraj; Genicot, Garance
作者单位：Georgetown University; New York University
摘要：We conceptualize and measure upward mobility over income or wealth. At the core of our exercise is the Growth Progressivity Axiom: transfers of instantaneous growth rates from relatively rich to poor individuals increases upward mobility. This axiom, along with mild auxiliary restrictions, identifies an upward mobility kernel with a single free parameter, in which mobility is linear in individual growth rates, with geometrically declining weights on baseline incomes. We extend this kernel to t...
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作者：Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I give conditions under which changes in private spending are accommodated in general equilibrium exactly like changes in aggre-gate fiscal expenditure. Under such demand equivalence, research-ers can use time series evidence on fiscal multipliers to recover the general equilibrium missing intercept of shocks to private spend-ing identified in the cross section. Through the lens of this theory, time series estimates of a fiscal multiplier around one suggest a miss-ing intercept close to zero-a...
