The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticitiest

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boehm, Christoph E.; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210225
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 861-905
• 关键词: product differentiation; COSTS; DYNAMICS; gravity; IMPACT; LIBERALIZATION; Heterogeneity; PROTECTION; economies; geography

摘要

When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, part-ners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the trade elastic-ity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find that the elasticity of tariff-exclusive trade flows is-0.76 in the short run, and approximately-2 in the long run. Our long-run esti-mates are smaller than typical in the literature, and it takes 7 to10 years to converge to the long run, implying that (i) the wel-fare gains from trade are high and (ii) there are substantial con-vexities in the costs of adjusting exports. (JEL C51, F13, F14)