The Voice of Monetary Policyt

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Pham, Tho; Talavera, Oleksander
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Reading; University of Birmingham
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220129
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 548-584
• 关键词: central bank communication; federal-reserve; interest-rates; news; FOMC; INFORMATION; surprises; responses; SPEECH

摘要

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Federal Reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy messages are communicated can move the financial market. Our results provide implications for improving the effectiveness of central bank communications.